Is Ankole a realistic & Potent Opposition to MU7?

At 34, am I a historical, revolutionary or just an ordinary citizen? I was in the bush with the NRA in 1981 to 1986 in Kiwanguzi-Luwero. I witnessed the fusion of Vumbula, a paramilitary group headed by Major.Kakooza Mutale, Ensi Egula Mirambo and Kikono with the NRA in 1981. I lost my father in combat in the jungles of Luwero and my mother retired from the NRA at the rank of Lieutenant in 1992. Am I also a revolutionary by default, association or not? Having spent 5 years of the NRA war out of school and my childhood lost, I went back to primary school in 1987 joining King’s College, Budo in 1991 for my high school till 1996 when I joined Makerere University. Now I hear Dr.Besigye a former bush war physician to President Museveni and Maj.John Kazoora have been disqualified from the “historical” club and I really don’t care. By default I am not one either because of my age and certainly my cartoon status in the political realm. What is the fuss about this “historical” club therefore? Has it really delivered the fundamentals it promised with good momentum? I admire Museveni for just one thing; he knows his personal agenda and follows it with agility, calm and focus. Magode Ikuya “claims” to be a member of the historical club unfortunately he knows that Museveni can strike him off at will if he threatens the center of gravity of power in Nakasero. And while the Magode Ikuyas of this world are still highly celebral in their evening years since their contribution in the Fronasa struggle of the 1970s against Amin, they do not have a political base to threaten the power center reason their ideas do not seem to resonate with the President and his lieutenants at Nakasero or Entebbe. How things have changed so fast! A lean Museveni, 1986 stated his is not a “mere change of guards but a fundamental change”. In 1988 after a regional summit between President Museveni and Gen.Javenal Habyarimana over the return of Rwandans, I watched my hero inspect an NRA guard of honor with his guest in Lubiri barracks commanded by Maj.Gen.Fred Rwigyema then Deputy Army Commander and I was awed. Then I was only in Primary Five staying with (RIP) Major.Bunyenyzi then 1ST Division Commander. I admired officers and men in uniform. I had an emotional connection with them knowing very well every little bit of their lives and sacrifice in the defense of our national security. Water has over the years past under the bridge.

Today, Ugandans have witnessed a practical transformation of the former Marxist revolutionary who presided over a frugal, small and efficient government and state apparatus between 1986 and 1995 to a flamboyant ultra-capitalist running relatively one of the biggest governments in the world. Uganda has certainly obtained a lot of social capital in Museveni’s charismatic leadership having assumed power during the cold war era. There have been regional and global geo-political reconfigurations that the President had to take consideration of to make his radical shift. The question is whether the President still has the energy to keep the boat afloat amidst growing squabbles with his rank and file. The “historical” club whose membership was mainly of characters with socialist leanings is now a preserve of the bourgeois owning estates in billions of dollars. Problem is that this group is predominantly from Ankole sub-region and specifically those claiming marginalization are from outside the Kiruhura enclave especially from Rukungiri and Kanungu. While the national economy has grown in aggregate terms, the picture is still blurred at household level while seemingly politically connected elite amasses wealth to unimaginable proportions to the envy of everyone else. We are witnessing a situation where a political elite predating off the state is acquiring rural land and dispossessing peasants thus destabilizing the regime’s traditional safety net since we have not developed a welfare state. The result has been a growing rural-urban migration of young people that is not matched by the much hyped industrialization process. The net effect has been slum growth, boda boda economy and the growing organized crime rate. The situation will not get better therefore if the regime does not strategically re-event itself and invest in public goods that can stimulate enterprise and market development amidst an exploding population.

Problem though is that the house has caught fire. The Bahororo sub-tribe from Rukungiri with many decorated former “presumptuous” members of the “historical” club is now up in arms and looking at the President with suspicion and anger. Initially in league with the President, they had political clout. They managed massive security and military budgets from which they curved their power bases and enormous wealth which they still possess with capability to rock the political boat as the President’s energy wanes gradually. These Bahororo former comrades of the President had political-marriages with spouses from the Kiruhura enclave. They were then in league with the Sabagabe. But also it was one way a smart Museveni would keep tab on these ambitious chaps. The Bahororo seem to have strong links with a network of wealthy Bakiga diaporians allied to Dr.Besigye’s cause and with a powerful conviction that Mr.Museveni has lost the political initiative in managing the state prudently. They also have very strong intelligence network with a suspicious regime in Kigali right next door. A combination of this internal Ankole revolt in the president’s court that is in irreconcilable mood as witnessed from the NSSF-Mbabazi Temangalo land debacle, the traditional opposition in the north and East, an increasingly irritable Mengo establishment over land, a growing population of landless and unemployed youths leaves President Museveni with a non-tested group of young elite in the military and security agencies under the wing of his son Lt.Col.Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

What is happening is now a regime in free fall mode. It is obvious the President is operating in cautious mode a sign he has lost his power stature over the years. He has been in fighting mood with Mengo over the Land Bill project that culminated into the arrest of three Mengo officials. His maverick intelligence coordinator deployed the “black mamba” a paramilitary anti terrorist commando unit that publicly defiled the “temple of justice” during the PRA suspects release by the high court. For the first time, a keen monitor photo journalist revealed the military commandos often camouflaged in police uniform confirming the regime has actually adopted a militant stance in dealing with civil matters of public good. Former revolutionaries have been found to have stolen GAVI money meant for immunizing our children. They have been found to have a high affinity for money that they have also misused global fund money meant for procurement of anti retro viral drugs for our citizens. The quiet revolt raging with in the regime is irreversible and is going to shape the future political landscape in Uganda.

ANC proved that in a truly emerging democracy, the agenda of the ruling party over-rides the personal agenda of a sitting President. NRM certainly does not merit the tenets on which ANC runs its business. In a sense this grants President Museveni some false sense of security since as a sitting president with his patronage network of political hangers-on he can out-maneuver his opponents in the immediate. Given the trend above, it is visible Ugandans are slowly gaining momentum to effect change. And the catalyst of this momentum seems deeply rooted in the group that ushered in the regime itself factionalized due internal marginalization as a policy of the regime. The President’s safety valve remains in his young turks that have taken command positions with in the military and security organizations under the wing of his son Lt.Col.Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

The political damage the NSSF saga has done Hon.John Patrick Amama Mbabazi has eroded the power that was a preserve of the historical club. President Museveni remains the only historical left with any trace of political energy in his belly except that age is not on his side. I do not think it is in the interest of President Museveni to re-engineer Amama Mbabazi public standing from a political stand point. President Museveni in the immediate needs the celebral energy of John Patrick Mbabazi who even opponents respect for his brain power. This certainly translates into mutually symbiotic relationship and confirms Mbabazi’s assertion that he will quit when the President quits as quoted by the Sunday Vision, 27th September 2008. Technically, those opposed to Mr.Mbabazi are opposed to the President in private. What we can see is a growing internal opposition to the President in the next few years with in the party as well as a growing population of unemployed youths, poor landless peasantry and a tax burdened middle class.

Can the young turks carry on Mr.Museveni’s agenda when faced with an organized group of former “historicals” opposed to Mr.Museveni’s succession project? Will any of the two belligerent groups pursue their mission for public good? http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/opinions/Is_the_Ankole_house_facing_internal_revolt_72669.shtml

South Africa ponders life after Mbeki

South Africa's political landscape is changing faster than anyone anticipated.
The speed of events over the past few days has inevitably created an atmosphere of uncertainty, and some apprehension.
The sudden resignation of President Thabo Mbeki has drawn a welter of calls for clear and strong leadership, lest the country finds itself on the path to becoming "a banana republic", to quote the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
However, change has been on the cards since the historic African National Congress (ANC) national conference in Polokwane last December.
Thabo Mbeki, seeking a third term as party leader, was defeated by his long-time rival, Jacob Zuma - the man whom Mr Mbeki had sacked as South Africa's Deputy President in 2005.
Polokwane was a watershed, with 4,000 ANC delegates from branches all over the countries exercising their democratic right to force a change of leadership in the party.
After 10 years at the helm of the ruling party, Thabo Mbeki found himself rejected in favour of the populist, Jacob Zuma.
Within days of the Polokwane conference, the writing was on the wall for Thabo Mbeki and his allies.
At the ANC's anniversary celebrations in January, the then leader of the party's Youth League, Fikile Mbalula, signalled that the Zuma camp in the ANC was firmly in the ascendancy.
"We are the future. No-one can stop us", he declared.

Trying times
There has been a decidedly mixed reaction in South Africa to the forced resignation of Thabo Mbeki.
"He was a bad president. He divided our country", said last week's Sunday Times. President Mbeki's ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance Helen Zille Leader of the Democratic Alliance
But many commentators and observers have expressed disquiet at the timing of this political change.
They believe it could leave South Africa vulnerable at a time of turbulence in the world economy.
An analysis by Standard Chartered Bank says that "with the economic slowdown and electricity crisis, South Africa already faces a trying time".
"Emigration levels from the country are the highest they have been since the early 1990's. Both business and consumer confidence have slumped," it continues.
"While investors may welcome greater certainty in terms of the future political outlook, a more volatile political transition is likely to cost the country dearly," the bank says.

Marginalised poor
It was Thabo Mbeki's stewardship of the South African economy that has arguably been his greatest achievement.
During his presidency, the country has enjoyed its longest period of steady economic growth. The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, has appealed to South Africans not to panic

There are fears that if Jacob Zuma becomes President after next year's elections, he may be beholden to some of his allies on the political left, such as the Cosatu trade union federation and the South African Communist Party.
They have always been opposed to Mr Mbeki's economic policies, arguing that the poor have been marginalised, and that unemployment remains high.
However, in the short term, there are hopes that the likely acting president, Kgalema Motlanthe, may be the safe pair of hands that the country needs at present.

"Mr Motlanthe has been one of the few voices of reason in the ANC," said Patricia De Lille, the leader of the smaller opposition party, the Independent Democrats.

"We hope he will put the country before the party, and put the lives of ordinary South Africans ahead of party political agendas," she said.

Breakaway party Helen Zille, the leader of the biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, says the current political crisis has highlighted the deep divisions within the ANC.
"President Mbeki's ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance." The threat of a breakaway party is now significant

Standard Chartered Bank The ANC has been stressing the need for a smooth transition.
The confirmed resignation of six cabinet ministers on Tuesday was not the type of news it wanted.
Another eight ministers or deputy ministers have been persuaded to stay, and will, it seems, be re-appointed by the new administration.
But the walk-out by a handful of Mbeki loyalists in the cabinet has raised the intriguing possibility of a significant split within the ANC, and for the first time, perhaps, the emergence of a breakaway party.
It would be unthinkable for Thabo Mbeki, who has devoted his life to the ANC since he was a teenager, to leave the party.
But according to Standard Chartered Bank's analysts, "the threat of a breakaway party is now significant".
It warns that the implications could be grave.

"The ANC remains the dominant party in South Africa, but any exodus by a large number of centrists, would leave party policy even more at the mercy of more radical influences," it says.
The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, may insist that the current changes are "nothing extraordinary", but his appeal to South Africans "not to panic", suggests that the Rainbow Nation is facing one of its biggest challenges of the post-apartheid era.