Debate is quietly raging in Kampala’s ‘joints” or bufundas as to whether President Museveni is just gradually getting complacent or simply an astute student of economics. Does the traffic jam in Kampala exhibit a growing rich urban elite? Are the sky rocketing food prices exhibit of growing affluence as the president has been persistently quoted in the media? There are many ways of looking at his political body language. He has hosted a successful Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. His government has presided over the commercial exploitation of crude oil in the albertine region, the war in northern Uganda is seemingly in its evening hour and lastly, the internal civil opposition has been drafted into different arms of government forming a “partnership” of mutual perpetuation. The net effect of this political “climax” is the current size of our public administration where both the ruling political regime and the opposition enjoy a sizeable presence. And to the rest of the country, relative peace turns out our reward in exchange for our commitment to pay taxes to sustain the good politicians who have made peace with each other at the high table for our sake.
Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) thrusted forward by the IMF/WB have seen President Museveni rewarded with resources to sustain his government in exchange for his cooperative partnership with Uncle Sam. Do not meek about this one; he was initially pro-marxist reason for Uganda’s stint at barter trade in 1987. The currency reforms in 1987 seem to have helped his young government mobilize resources to function in the early days. In the process, the geo-political balance of power with the final collapse of the Soviet Union saw Mr.Museveni gradually transform into an ultra pro-western partner over-seeing the collapse of Gen.Habyarimana’s government in Rwanda, Field Marshal Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, attempts at the political reconfiguration of the DR.Congo with Joseph Desire Kabira and the proxy war in Southern Sudan against Khartoum. The events above have had their socio-economic impact on the country in a way we can’t just explain away. Technically he has worked out his political survival well having invested massively in the project. While the economic reforms engineered by the WB/IFM have opened the economy to global competition, human movement and capital flows, the reforms have stopped at the point where the center of gravity of power starts. Economic reforms can only have the right momentum when the political supply chain is equally in progressive mode. Certainly, a progressive and reform minded government has become alien to Kampala since 1995.
It is my humble submission that the president and his lieutenants have over politicized the public good in political reforms. Rather than having improved public accountability and service delivery as the principle objective, Mr.Museveni has invested in political consolidation as his ultimate calculation. There has been a lack of patriotism manifested by that quest to have uninterrupted leadership. There has been too much emphasis on the need for a non “disruptive” opposition. The reason for this is certainly that government will not always do certain things right in public interest thus a need for an alternative voice. Why did we have to decentralize and also expand the size of the central government at the same time? What concurrent reforms were carried out at the center having ceded powers, responsibilities and role in service delivery to the district governments? Answering these questions helps one understand the motive behind the deception on the decentralization process and the reluctant shift from movement to multiparty politics. Despite the role played by the districts and all the inadequate funding, it was an instrument used as a safety valve for government as many jobless people who had previously worked for privatized public corporations, demobilized officers and men of the armed forces presented a potent force for political tension in Kampala. The central government has grown exponentially and is still growing till the president has no more space. The size of cabinet should have been smaller with the advent of the decentralization process. But the size of parliament also grew as a result of more districts. Government has also constituted many public institutions that until today have no clear mandate. They are visibly dysfunctional with a lot of duplication of roles thus the inter-agency conflicts that we see everyday in the media. This mix explains the apparent fusion of government and the state like Siamese twins.
The decentralization program without corresponding reforms at the center has been one area of decongesting the center with political “noise”. In Museveni’s calculation, every potential political element can find employment at least at the districts if not in all the dysfunctional institutions that have been established without any clear policy mandate. Political commentators call this patronage. By default, this confusion has granted the former revolutionary a lot of political comfort reason for what many may view as complacency in the traffic jam/food price politics. While economic reforms have helped the proliferation of NGOs, opened up opportunities for foreign and local investments and created some sizeable number of jobs, the bulk of government is not inspiring as it eats away all the benefits of the economic reforms. It is this reason despite the massive expansion of the tax base since 1986; it is difficult to identify the infrastructural investment made by this government in public interest apart from the military. Since 1986, it is difficult to imagine that no one anticipated the increasing demand on energy or that someone did but no one took this as a strategic national security issue. The potential collapse of the bridge is also another spanner in the works. The Ministry of Finance says it has no money to invest in another bridge but has a lot to buy the president another Presidential jet. The economic cost of government inertia in making strategic investments in the economy is terribly massive. It is easy for a young professional to buy a car from a bond than a plot of land in and around Kampala. Reason, land is a risky investment for many due to the problems in the land registry and the general lack of enthusiasm for government to establish an appropriate policy framework that encourages local investment. Why? Government earns a lot of tax on importation of cars than land purchases; road license, fuel tax, import tax and hear comes the killer one, bad roads increase cost of car maintenance thus importation of car parts with additional tax. And too many cars in a poorly planned small city means traffic jams and more fuel consumption thus more tax for government. Do not forget; 80% of cars in Kampala are a result of bank loans at an interest of 25% on average from the commercial banks or shylocks. The profits that accrue from these high interests are taxed by government. In the end government turns out like a rogue shylock. Government is supposed to be an instrument of public good, to provide a platform of sound leadership so that its citizens can be productive. It is supposed to be the interest of government to help its people make sound investment decisions. Car importation might in the short term provide the tax base for the government to carry out its functions but later preside over a poor old population that is no longer productive having been drained in their youth. Over reliance on import tax has its serious implications as it directly affects our foreign exchange reserve.
