Kenya's post election violence has left many socio-economic analysts and recent optimists in the mooted African renaissance as an emerging market very surprised. The 'optimism' of world leaders such as former US President Bill Jefferson Clinton was based on closed door schemes by the recent club of "revolutionaries'. The will by African leaders to expose their unstructured and informal economies to ferocious market reforms without cushions was neither pragmatic nor progressive. It has not been progressive because incumbent regimes have deliberately and persistently ignored political reforms that have a direct bearing on the success of economic reforms. Political reforms have immediate impact on the power structure; which by all means is the resource distribution supply chain. This lack of progressive political reforms undermines economic reforms resulting into a fragile and politically god-fathered and arrogant middle-class. The “if you can’t afford bread buy cake” kind of middle-class.
From Adis Ababa, Kampala, Kigali, Pretoria, Kinshasa it is visible the IMF/World Bank structural adjustment programs (SAPs) were like putting a square peg in a circular hole.
The IMF/WB ‘thought’ African governments can independently dig a circular hole. Alas! The Breton Wood Institutions authored and monitored these reforms strictly with the object of ensuring that African markets were open to the capitalist elite in Europe and the US. They certainly obtained their principle objective having all African markets burst open. The “new breed of African leaders” was assured of financial resources in return for their “cooperative partnership’ with Uncle SAM. Based on this observation, the optimism of President Bill Clinton was overly deceptive in the eyes of the Africa people.
The question is: In whose interests do African leaders work? Political historians assert that politics is about power acquisition and its retention, agreed! The disappointing bit is that in Africa regime consolidation, schemism and brute kleptocracy seems to be the “genetic” denominator. While liberalizing the economy gives a semblance of national reforms, the process and momentum stops at the point where the center of gravity of power is challenged. It means therefore, these liberal economic reforms are a compromise between the IMF/WB and African governments in a partnership of mutual perpetuation.
Good governance is; but smart leadership that obtains when the regime in power is politically inclined to vertical and horizontal reforms. Economic reforms are not sustainable if the benefits cannot equitably trickle down. The regime must win public trust that it is acting in public interest. This public trust or lack of it has been tested with Uganda’s attempts at the land reforms. The three words are: Suspicion, Suspicion, Suspicion. It is saddening that power consolidation in Africa has taken this dangerous dimension becoming the primary motive of leadership. In Uganda history is littered with a lot of this baboon! Power consolidation projects have stretched from brute suppression of decent, muzzling of the independent media to bribing opponents. The worst part is the inflation of government departmental budgetary allocation especially in classified expenditures and national defense, internal re-allocation of public funds to regime power consolidation programs without parliamentary approval. The direct beneficiaries remain a small network of regime supporters and cronies. Unfortunately, the false sense of security in the strong military and the security services built by the regime clouds the judgment of our leadership of the public expectations. The result is the Kenyan debacle that has sent economic shivers in the region. Uganda, Rwanda or Tanzania must not be fooled that all is fine. The region must address economic marginalization with immediate urgency because when the Kenyan scenario is replicated, then our CNN $ 1M adverts of “Gifted by nature” will have no impact.
The recent fight and animosity between South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki and the newly elected ANC head Jacob Zuma is a clear example. The Black Empowerment Program (BEP) under the current leadership has been an instrument of empowerment of the Xhosa tribal elite, Mbeki and Mandela’s tribe. This is a perception in South Africa among the Zulu and reason for open defiance against Thabo Mbeki’s elitist approach to public concerns. The fight despite the national damage control measures exhibited schemism and political arm-twisting. The timing of his sacking as Vice President, his rape and corruption trials contradict strongly with the man’s political support which must not be ignored by social analysts. This public support for ‘morally’ questionable personalities, such as Zuma; a man with no formal education, is certainly a protest against any political regime. It has happened in Kampala when Mayor Nasser Ntege Ssebagala returned from a US jail for money laundering. Despite Ssebagala trial and conviction in a competent judicial system, the perception that the government of Uganda had a hand in his predicament catapulted him to political ‘stardom’ trying his acrobatics at the Presidency and finally settling to the Mayorship of Kampala. It points to public trust of the functioning of the state. It is ‘the state/regime is corrupt and rotten then let others do rob scenario’. Robin hood, too many here!
Therefore, it is important to postulate that the supporters of Jacob Zuma of South Africa, Pasteur Bizimungu of Rwanda or Raila Odinga of Kenya do not necessarily feel these men are angels who can deliver them to Canaan; rather their expression of political disgust of regimes that have failed to address public policy concerns, justifiably, legally, institutionally and consistently. The growing public disorder is an expression of dissent to regimes that have implemented reforms half-heartedly leaving a majority marginalized. Building a political structure that eats away all the benefits of the economic reforms marginalizing a section of the population builds latent political tensions. Kenya’s 6.5% economic growth under Mwai Kibaki’s regime did not help to un-nerve the dissent among the Luo’s who felt marginalized by the reforms. The political reforms demanded were meant to address this perceived marginalization and Kenya is just what you and I know today with spill over effects in the region.
What is the answer therefore to this madness? The term is Smart government. Build a reform minded and progressive government that is forward looking. A smart government is led by a nationally shared vision. Do not meek about this; I am not talking about President Museveni’s vision or government. I am talking about a small, efficient and effective government. A smart government is led by men and women who lead by sacrifice rather than extravagance and comfort amidst scarcity. You remember that leader called Museveni who promised to buy furniture from Bwaise? That is the leader of a smart government. Yes, I know you think this is impossible here in our banana continent because President Museveni changed his mind from an ultra-maxist to ultra-capitalist now changing Presidential jets at will. But it starts with me and you. A smart government understands the strategic geo-political positioning of its country in the converging global order. It works in the defense of its national strategic interests and that of its people in the immediate, short and long term rather than a primary motive of regime survival. In this, it works to build national institutions that are accountable to the people. It recognizes the role of the opposition as institutions of ideological diversity. A smart government invests in emerging technology to improve efficiency, effectiveness and accountability in the service of its people. A smart government publicly invests in the human development capacity of its people as its inexhaustible resource. It invests in infrastructures that stimulate economic productivity and improve overall national competitiveness. This government wins and retains public support in its reforms and transparently conducts its business with three things on its agenda; PEOPLE, PEOPLE, PEOPLE!
