Global Financial Crisis on Africa-World Bank Economist Explains!

Shanta Devarajan is Chief Economist of the World Bank's Africa Region.
We at the World Bank think that the effects of the global economic crisis on Africa will be at least fourfold.
First, there could be fall-out within the banking system because of foreign ownership.
If a parent bank in the US or Europe is suffering, it might have an effect on a bank in Africa. We do not think, however, that African banking systems are going to suffer the kind of turmoil that the US and European banking systems have been suffering. African banks tend to keep their loans on their own balance sheets; there is a very small secondary market; and the market for derivatives is almost non-existent. Several African countries are suffering signs of macroeconomic imbalances quite independent of the financial crisis

The second and biggest effect is going to be the potential decline in private capital flows.In the last three years, private capital flows have been rising faster in Africa than in any other part of the world.

If the global credit crunch leads to a decline in capital flows and a reduced appetite for risk, this could severely affect African countries that have been relying on these flows for their infrastructure investment. The third area is the potential decline in commodity prices.This has already started. We have just seen the price of oil fall to nearly $70 a barrel. However, we are confident that today we are a little bit better prepared to cope with falling prices than we were in the 1980s, when oil prices fell and threw Africa into major turmoil.

Finally, there are several African countries that are suffering signs of macroeconomic imbalances quite independent of the financial crisis. Ethiopia, for example, has an inflation rate of about 60%. These countries are going to have to undertake some kind of macroeconomic adjustment, and the presence of the financial crisis may speed this up. Of course, there is also a danger that foreign aid might decline. But that's based on two other events. One is that there's a major recession in the US and Europe, or in the donor countries. And second, whether the spending allocations that governments make will lead to cutbacks in foreign aid.

There is always that risk, but we are reasonably confident that there may be other ways of shoring up some of those resources, because for many aid is a matter of life and death.

Uganda & the Impact of the global financial crisis!

The present financial crisis afflicting the global economy should not be seen from the narrow focus of the credit crunch and its relationship to the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the Western countries, especially the US.

The crisis goes to the very foundations of the global capitalist system and it should be analysed from that angle. What is at the core of the crisis is the over-extension of credit on a narrow material production base. This is in a situation in which money has become increasingly detached from its material base of a money commodity that can measure its value such as gold.

The expansion of the world economy from 1945 onwards was based on the US providing some kind of link between money and the gold standard, which the US tried to maintain until its collapse in the 1970s. Increasingly the dollar became the global currency but without a backing to its currency from a money commodity.

The over-expansion of credit that has taken place since then, especially with the globalisation of the world economy, has meant that a lot of paper money and monetary instruments in the form of derivatives and ‘future options’ have lost any relationship to the ‘fundamentals’ in the material production of the world economy.

That is why there has been a growing outcry that the growth of ‘speculative capital’ has over-run the growth of ‘productive capital’ with large amounts of money and credit circulating without the backing of any production at all.

That is also why the relationship between the ‘fundamentals’ in the economy and the new credit instruments created on a daily basis in many cases from speculative ‘short-selling’ have become narrower and narrower over time.

This is also why the present financial crisis is also a reflection of the energy and food crisis, because oil and food products such as wheat, rice and other commodities have been subjected to speculative trading to back up paper money many years in the future.

The British Prime Minister, among the world leaders, is the only one who has seen this connection when he brought it up in the World Bank meeting a few months ago and also when he met the US Democratic Party Presidential candidate, Barack Obama, when he visited Europe recently.

Thus the amount of credit floating around the world is ‘loose money’ completely run-wild, which claims a relationship with a narrow production base. This is in a situation when the US is increasingly unable to repay debts it has accumulated in its Treasury Bonds and Bills, in which the rest of the world have placed their reserves.

Uganda has millions in these US Treasury Bills, which are held as our ‘reserves.’ China has billions as well as India and Japan in these bills and bonds. This means that should the world economy collapse under pressure of ‘loose money’ wanting to be given a value (which they do not have) so that the holders of that ‘money’ can preserve their wealth, those holdings in US Treasury Bills (or US debt to the rest of the world) will be lost forcing many weak economies to collapse along with it.

This is why it is wrong to conclude, like the Daily Monitor columnist, Fredrick Masiga, has done that “capitalism has shown over the years that it can always reinvent itself by growing a new skin to resist the pangs of conscious inflicted on it by its own greed.” That is a false conclusion.

US and British capitalism are being put under pressure to stay afloat only by nationalising corporations and banks that can no longer sustain their operations because of shortage of ‘liquid cash.’ These corporations and banks demand that the state should bail them out.

The state is being forced to bail these enterprises out on condition that they shall sell the bulk of their shares to the state. This means that these capitalist states are being forced to move in the direction of central planning and management of the economy. For lack of space, we cannot go into this matter in greater detail.

In short, what Karl Marx called ‘the financial oligarchy’ is demanding that the state should take over their burdens and maintain the ‘value’ of their valueless credit instruments while insisting that the poor workers and the middle classes shall take care of themselves.

In other words, they demand communism for themselves and capitalism for the poor because capitalism is the only way the poor can ‘compete’ to survive, while the oligarchs have the protection of the state to look after their needs.

Remember that Marx defined communism as: ‘to each according to his needs’ and socialism as: ‘to each according to his capabilities.” Capitalism is even better defined as: ‘to each according to his devices.’

In the next article I shall discuss how Uganda and other African countries can try to survive the collapse of the global capitalist economy.

Economic growth does not solve a poor man’s woes!

UGANDA has registered numerous successes in building her economy. The economy is currently “growing at an astronomical rate” of 8.9% per annum and this is one of the highest rates of growth in the world. However, the country’s economy boasts of the dominant 68% of the population solely engaged in a hand-to-mouth production!

By implication, there is poverty amidst this highly acclaimed progress. Uganda has been ambitiously pursuing policies for achieving economic growth over the last 20 years. Some of these policies include curbing inflation that comprise; reduction in liquidity, practising fiscal discipline through reduced public expenditure in health and education; attracting foreign investors and enhancing export performance and controlling the capital inflows, among others.

Uganda is experiencing an inflation rate at 13.7% (Bank of Uganda, July 2008) and this is attributed to exogenous shocks especially increases in prices of energy particularly petroleum products. It has not been so uncommon for the ordinary people to complain about high commodity prices for basic goods like salt, soap, paraffin and especially food which have almost doubled. This fuss was not only Uganda’s experience but the world over.

Paradoxically, the measurement of inflation is based on “underline” which technically means that there is no consideration of food prices, yet it is foodstuffs that experience most price volatility. It is more ironical that it is the low income earners that spend their largest proportion of their incomes on food.

Apparently, the local person suffers the full brunt of price escalation. The implication is that the control of inflation could have been more rewarding if the measures addressed “headline” inflation i.e. addressing price escalation including foodstuffs.

It should be noted that macro-economic growth does not benefit the ordinary poor especially in Africa where most economies are agrarian largely dominated by subsistence producers (hand-to-mouth).

This means that these people are spectators in the market system since they basically have nothing to put on the market.
But if the poor remain excluded from the mainstream economic growth, the well-off will pay more in social costs associated with increasing poverty and joblessness.

The cost will manifest through high expenses on personal security and crime prevention.As Robert McNamara, the former president of the World Bank and American Secretary of Defence argued, “widespread poverty amidst islands of wealth is more dangerous to the latter.” So, if governments do not deal effectively with poverty, then, poverty will deal more destructively with governments.

Recall the reasons for the emergence of the French revolution where the people could not afford to buy bread but Marie Antoinette, the celebrated arrogant and extravagant wife (Queen) of King Louis XVI sarcastically advised the poor and hungry French mobs to “eat cake if they cannot afford bread”.

Maintaining a favourable balance of trade (whereby the country’s exports’ receipts are higher than imports’ invoices) is a very necessary aspect of macroe-conomic performance.

This makes foreign investment needed and welcome. Nevertheless, it would be more prudent to provide incentives to foreign companies based on their sourcing of local content like employment of the local labour force; local raw materials; and helping domestic manufactures to become more competitive.

There is need to review the economics of Washington Consensus which is premised on “Less state and more market”. The state must not only remain relevant but actually must be effective if it is to cause transformation of the economy.

This is what Robert Wade of the London School of Economics calls “the need for the state to govern the market”. The argument here is that while the market provides environment for efficiency, there is a danger of creating exclusion of the poor from the fierce competition usually worsened by imperfect markets. If imperfect markets are left unabated, it can be a recipe for conflict and disintegration in extreme cases.

Poverty reduction is part and parcel of economic growth. The argument that growth must be achieved before redistribution is a mirage. The trickle-down mechanism based on the assumption that economic growth (first economy) will filter through to the poor (second economy) does not hold water.

This implies that if the growth strategy turns belly–up, poverty reduction will sink with it. This reminds one of the old adage that “the poor man’s walking stick is support for the rich”. What is really needed is the welfare net to soften the blow. There are a number of examples which show that relying solely on the market has not created efficiency.

The British rail system was privatised but there are serious efficiency gaps in keeping time, collisions, etc. Similarly, there is evidence that economic growth in many countries has not trickled down to the poor. It is therefore apparent that governments need to provide social security for those waiting for windfalls of economic growth.

But even if economic growth finally arrives, it is unlikely to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. For example, South Africa is the continent’s most successful economy with a GDP, amounting to a third of all 48 sub-Saharan African economies combined.

Paradoxically, it is the same economy that is encumbered with widespread dissatisfaction by the unemployed, increasing poverty and crime. I was recently in South Africa and I travelled in one of the domestic flights but I hardly saw any other black person on this flight! There were only whites and Indians—the top beneficiaries of Africa’s most successful economy.

Where are the benefits of the highly romanticised growth in South Africa? Similarly, Peru has been one of the most successful countries in Latin America with a GDP growth of 9.2% per annum but with paradoxically high levels of poverty, vulnerability and a disgruntled population.

The Peruvian people give little credit to President Allan Garsia for the strong economy just as former President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa has been thrown out of the presidency yet, he has presided over a vibrant economy.

Coming back home, the Uganda government has claimed an economic growth of 8.9% per annum in the 2007/8 financial year. This is among the highest economic growths in the world but how many Ugandans can identify with this growth?

Ultimately, what Ugandans require are education and skills development; employment creation; improved livelihoods, improved productivity, and increased welfare, rather than figures and macro-economic policies that have little meaning to an ordinary poor hungry person. Poor people understand their needs better than anyone else and government must take its lead from them not the other way round.

The ordinary people should be allowed to voice their needs and government action be based on the needs assessment of the people but not what the government thinks the people need. The writing is clearly on the wall.

Is Ankole a realistic & Potent Opposition to MU7?

At 34, am I a historical, revolutionary or just an ordinary citizen? I was in the bush with the NRA in 1981 to 1986 in Kiwanguzi-Luwero. I witnessed the fusion of Vumbula, a paramilitary group headed by Major.Kakooza Mutale, Ensi Egula Mirambo and Kikono with the NRA in 1981. I lost my father in combat in the jungles of Luwero and my mother retired from the NRA at the rank of Lieutenant in 1992. Am I also a revolutionary by default, association or not? Having spent 5 years of the NRA war out of school and my childhood lost, I went back to primary school in 1987 joining King’s College, Budo in 1991 for my high school till 1996 when I joined Makerere University. Now I hear Dr.Besigye a former bush war physician to President Museveni and Maj.John Kazoora have been disqualified from the “historical” club and I really don’t care. By default I am not one either because of my age and certainly my cartoon status in the political realm. What is the fuss about this “historical” club therefore? Has it really delivered the fundamentals it promised with good momentum? I admire Museveni for just one thing; he knows his personal agenda and follows it with agility, calm and focus. Magode Ikuya “claims” to be a member of the historical club unfortunately he knows that Museveni can strike him off at will if he threatens the center of gravity of power in Nakasero. And while the Magode Ikuyas of this world are still highly celebral in their evening years since their contribution in the Fronasa struggle of the 1970s against Amin, they do not have a political base to threaten the power center reason their ideas do not seem to resonate with the President and his lieutenants at Nakasero or Entebbe. How things have changed so fast! A lean Museveni, 1986 stated his is not a “mere change of guards but a fundamental change”. In 1988 after a regional summit between President Museveni and Gen.Javenal Habyarimana over the return of Rwandans, I watched my hero inspect an NRA guard of honor with his guest in Lubiri barracks commanded by Maj.Gen.Fred Rwigyema then Deputy Army Commander and I was awed. Then I was only in Primary Five staying with (RIP) Major.Bunyenyzi then 1ST Division Commander. I admired officers and men in uniform. I had an emotional connection with them knowing very well every little bit of their lives and sacrifice in the defense of our national security. Water has over the years past under the bridge.

Today, Ugandans have witnessed a practical transformation of the former Marxist revolutionary who presided over a frugal, small and efficient government and state apparatus between 1986 and 1995 to a flamboyant ultra-capitalist running relatively one of the biggest governments in the world. Uganda has certainly obtained a lot of social capital in Museveni’s charismatic leadership having assumed power during the cold war era. There have been regional and global geo-political reconfigurations that the President had to take consideration of to make his radical shift. The question is whether the President still has the energy to keep the boat afloat amidst growing squabbles with his rank and file. The “historical” club whose membership was mainly of characters with socialist leanings is now a preserve of the bourgeois owning estates in billions of dollars. Problem is that this group is predominantly from Ankole sub-region and specifically those claiming marginalization are from outside the Kiruhura enclave especially from Rukungiri and Kanungu. While the national economy has grown in aggregate terms, the picture is still blurred at household level while seemingly politically connected elite amasses wealth to unimaginable proportions to the envy of everyone else. We are witnessing a situation where a political elite predating off the state is acquiring rural land and dispossessing peasants thus destabilizing the regime’s traditional safety net since we have not developed a welfare state. The result has been a growing rural-urban migration of young people that is not matched by the much hyped industrialization process. The net effect has been slum growth, boda boda economy and the growing organized crime rate. The situation will not get better therefore if the regime does not strategically re-event itself and invest in public goods that can stimulate enterprise and market development amidst an exploding population.

Problem though is that the house has caught fire. The Bahororo sub-tribe from Rukungiri with many decorated former “presumptuous” members of the “historical” club is now up in arms and looking at the President with suspicion and anger. Initially in league with the President, they had political clout. They managed massive security and military budgets from which they curved their power bases and enormous wealth which they still possess with capability to rock the political boat as the President’s energy wanes gradually. These Bahororo former comrades of the President had political-marriages with spouses from the Kiruhura enclave. They were then in league with the Sabagabe. But also it was one way a smart Museveni would keep tab on these ambitious chaps. The Bahororo seem to have strong links with a network of wealthy Bakiga diaporians allied to Dr.Besigye’s cause and with a powerful conviction that Mr.Museveni has lost the political initiative in managing the state prudently. They also have very strong intelligence network with a suspicious regime in Kigali right next door. A combination of this internal Ankole revolt in the president’s court that is in irreconcilable mood as witnessed from the NSSF-Mbabazi Temangalo land debacle, the traditional opposition in the north and East, an increasingly irritable Mengo establishment over land, a growing population of landless and unemployed youths leaves President Museveni with a non-tested group of young elite in the military and security agencies under the wing of his son Lt.Col.Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

What is happening is now a regime in free fall mode. It is obvious the President is operating in cautious mode a sign he has lost his power stature over the years. He has been in fighting mood with Mengo over the Land Bill project that culminated into the arrest of three Mengo officials. His maverick intelligence coordinator deployed the “black mamba” a paramilitary anti terrorist commando unit that publicly defiled the “temple of justice” during the PRA suspects release by the high court. For the first time, a keen monitor photo journalist revealed the military commandos often camouflaged in police uniform confirming the regime has actually adopted a militant stance in dealing with civil matters of public good. Former revolutionaries have been found to have stolen GAVI money meant for immunizing our children. They have been found to have a high affinity for money that they have also misused global fund money meant for procurement of anti retro viral drugs for our citizens. The quiet revolt raging with in the regime is irreversible and is going to shape the future political landscape in Uganda.

ANC proved that in a truly emerging democracy, the agenda of the ruling party over-rides the personal agenda of a sitting President. NRM certainly does not merit the tenets on which ANC runs its business. In a sense this grants President Museveni some false sense of security since as a sitting president with his patronage network of political hangers-on he can out-maneuver his opponents in the immediate. Given the trend above, it is visible Ugandans are slowly gaining momentum to effect change. And the catalyst of this momentum seems deeply rooted in the group that ushered in the regime itself factionalized due internal marginalization as a policy of the regime. The President’s safety valve remains in his young turks that have taken command positions with in the military and security organizations under the wing of his son Lt.Col.Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

The political damage the NSSF saga has done Hon.John Patrick Amama Mbabazi has eroded the power that was a preserve of the historical club. President Museveni remains the only historical left with any trace of political energy in his belly except that age is not on his side. I do not think it is in the interest of President Museveni to re-engineer Amama Mbabazi public standing from a political stand point. President Museveni in the immediate needs the celebral energy of John Patrick Mbabazi who even opponents respect for his brain power. This certainly translates into mutually symbiotic relationship and confirms Mbabazi’s assertion that he will quit when the President quits as quoted by the Sunday Vision, 27th September 2008. Technically, those opposed to Mr.Mbabazi are opposed to the President in private. What we can see is a growing internal opposition to the President in the next few years with in the party as well as a growing population of unemployed youths, poor landless peasantry and a tax burdened middle class.

Can the young turks carry on Mr.Museveni’s agenda when faced with an organized group of former “historicals” opposed to Mr.Museveni’s succession project? Will any of the two belligerent groups pursue their mission for public good? http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/opinions/Is_the_Ankole_house_facing_internal_revolt_72669.shtml

South Africa ponders life after Mbeki

South Africa's political landscape is changing faster than anyone anticipated.
The speed of events over the past few days has inevitably created an atmosphere of uncertainty, and some apprehension.
The sudden resignation of President Thabo Mbeki has drawn a welter of calls for clear and strong leadership, lest the country finds itself on the path to becoming "a banana republic", to quote the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
However, change has been on the cards since the historic African National Congress (ANC) national conference in Polokwane last December.
Thabo Mbeki, seeking a third term as party leader, was defeated by his long-time rival, Jacob Zuma - the man whom Mr Mbeki had sacked as South Africa's Deputy President in 2005.
Polokwane was a watershed, with 4,000 ANC delegates from branches all over the countries exercising their democratic right to force a change of leadership in the party.
After 10 years at the helm of the ruling party, Thabo Mbeki found himself rejected in favour of the populist, Jacob Zuma.
Within days of the Polokwane conference, the writing was on the wall for Thabo Mbeki and his allies.
At the ANC's anniversary celebrations in January, the then leader of the party's Youth League, Fikile Mbalula, signalled that the Zuma camp in the ANC was firmly in the ascendancy.
"We are the future. No-one can stop us", he declared.

Trying times
There has been a decidedly mixed reaction in South Africa to the forced resignation of Thabo Mbeki.
"He was a bad president. He divided our country", said last week's Sunday Times. President Mbeki's ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance Helen Zille Leader of the Democratic Alliance
But many commentators and observers have expressed disquiet at the timing of this political change.
They believe it could leave South Africa vulnerable at a time of turbulence in the world economy.
An analysis by Standard Chartered Bank says that "with the economic slowdown and electricity crisis, South Africa already faces a trying time".
"Emigration levels from the country are the highest they have been since the early 1990's. Both business and consumer confidence have slumped," it continues.
"While investors may welcome greater certainty in terms of the future political outlook, a more volatile political transition is likely to cost the country dearly," the bank says.

Marginalised poor
It was Thabo Mbeki's stewardship of the South African economy that has arguably been his greatest achievement.
During his presidency, the country has enjoyed its longest period of steady economic growth. The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, has appealed to South Africans not to panic

There are fears that if Jacob Zuma becomes President after next year's elections, he may be beholden to some of his allies on the political left, such as the Cosatu trade union federation and the South African Communist Party.
They have always been opposed to Mr Mbeki's economic policies, arguing that the poor have been marginalised, and that unemployment remains high.
However, in the short term, there are hopes that the likely acting president, Kgalema Motlanthe, may be the safe pair of hands that the country needs at present.

"Mr Motlanthe has been one of the few voices of reason in the ANC," said Patricia De Lille, the leader of the smaller opposition party, the Independent Democrats.

"We hope he will put the country before the party, and put the lives of ordinary South Africans ahead of party political agendas," she said.

Breakaway party Helen Zille, the leader of the biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, says the current political crisis has highlighted the deep divisions within the ANC.
"President Mbeki's ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance." The threat of a breakaway party is now significant

Standard Chartered Bank The ANC has been stressing the need for a smooth transition.
The confirmed resignation of six cabinet ministers on Tuesday was not the type of news it wanted.
Another eight ministers or deputy ministers have been persuaded to stay, and will, it seems, be re-appointed by the new administration.
But the walk-out by a handful of Mbeki loyalists in the cabinet has raised the intriguing possibility of a significant split within the ANC, and for the first time, perhaps, the emergence of a breakaway party.
It would be unthinkable for Thabo Mbeki, who has devoted his life to the ANC since he was a teenager, to leave the party.
But according to Standard Chartered Bank's analysts, "the threat of a breakaway party is now significant".
It warns that the implications could be grave.

"The ANC remains the dominant party in South Africa, but any exodus by a large number of centrists, would leave party policy even more at the mercy of more radical influences," it says.
The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, may insist that the current changes are "nothing extraordinary", but his appeal to South Africans "not to panic", suggests that the Rainbow Nation is facing one of its biggest challenges of the post-apartheid era.

Why South African President Thabo Mbeki had to go!

The African National Congress's decision to sack President Thabo Mbeki has been described by some South African commentators as "regicide".
Certainly it is unprecedented in South African history that a head of state is dismissed in this way. Nor is the ANC the kind of organisation that goes in for this humiliation of its leaders.
So why did it happen?
The immediate cause was Mr Mbeki's ongoing feud with his former deputy, the ANC party leader Jacob Zuma.
But this was not just a personal vendetta between two men. Behind these events lie two major factors: one political, one personal.

Fight with the left
Thabo Mbeki, although a former member of the South African Communist Party, has used conventional economic policies to drive the country's development agenda.
Tight monetary and budgetary targets have been set and met. The result has been a period of unprecedented economic growth, reaching 5% a year in recent years.

In June 1996 Finance Minister Trevor Manuel introduced a neo-liberal economic strategy known as Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear).
This included commitments to open markets, privatisation and a favourable investment climate.
The ANC is in a formal alliance with two groups on the left, the Communists and the trade union movement, Cosatu. Both were fiercely critical of the strategy and argued that they had been excluded from its development and implementation.

In the report to the Communist Party Congress in July 1998 the Central Committee spelled out their objections to Gear in great detail.
This concluded: "We remain convinced that Gear is the wrong policy. It was wrong in the process that developed it, it is wrong in its overall strategic conception, and it is wrong in much of its detail.
"At the end of the day, we cannot allow our entire transformation struggle to be held hostage by conservative approaches to the budget deficit."
In May this year Blade Nzimande, General Secretary of the Communist Party wrote: "Despite the many modest gains that our own democracy has made since the 1994 democratic breakthrough, our own self-imposed structural adjustment programme, Gear, failed to make a dent in unemployment (unemployment actually increased dramatically between 1996 and 2006), and eroded the capacity to build a developmental state."

These criticisms are not just held by the Communist Party, they are a reflection of the unease on the left as a whole at the policies that Thabo Mbeki adopted.
Anger at the president's strategy to tackle the problems of unemployment, in particular, contributed to his downfall.

Victims unite
All politicians make enemies. That is the nature of the game. But President Mbeki has made more than most. One example should suffice to illustrate the problem.
In April 2001 the country's national daily, the Star, had a headline that read "Mbeki plot rocks ANC".
President Mbeki had sent his minister of safety and security to accuse three leading members of the party of plotting to oust him.
The accused - former ANC secretary-general, Cyril Ramaphosa and two former provincial premiers, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa ­- were among the party's most respected figures.
All three were men who had driven to seek their fortunes in business after being marginalised by Mr Mbeki.
To this day there is no clear explanation of why these extraordinary charges were made. Nelson Mandela himself emerged from retirement to say that he held all three in "high esteem".
The Mail and Guardian newspaper commented at the time that it was a strategy worth of Joseph Stalin and said: "Many observers have dismissed the plot theories as a strategy to warn off potential competitors with ambitions to challenge Mbeki's leadership."
No evidence was ever led against them, no charges were laid and the matter was swept under the carpet. However, it was certainly not forgotten.
Today Mathew Phosa is the ANC Treasurer General, one of the top party posts. Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale are members of the National Executive.
Their names, along with those of Zwelinzima Vavi, leader of the trade unions in Cosatu and Blade Nzimande of the Communist Party, have been cited in the South African press as among those who wielded the knife against Thabo Mbeki.

The political and the personal had come together.

Uganda's Billionaire,Michael Ezra Lets out Presidential Ambitions!

Michael Ezra has been phenomenon to many Ugandans. He is certainly under the protection of the state. He brags of global business ecumen and at his age no Ugandan pretenders can marshal the resources his bag commands. And you can't easily disagree.

He has funded sports through which he hightlights his phylanthropic personality. My interaction with Michael Ezra have been purely business and here I will hightlight my observations. He is a public figure based on his financial muscle to the sports industry whose image is well crafted through smart public relations.

As a student of neural psychology I was able to identify certain character traits that will be a basis of this long term investigation of the man that remains an enigma to many.

Michael Ezra exudes confidence which certainly permeates from his financial muscle and closeness to the power structure in Uganda. To some, it is very easy to assume he is arrogant but that borders on ignorance.He is a smart guy certainly with an international exposure to his advantage.

President Museveni Politically Complacent!!

Debate is quietly raging in Kampala’s ‘joints” or bufundas as to whether President Museveni is just gradually getting complacent or simply an astute student of economics. Does the traffic jam in Kampala exhibit a growing rich urban elite? Are the sky rocketing food prices exhibit of growing affluence as the president has been persistently quoted in the media? There are many ways of looking at his political body language. He has hosted a successful Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. His government has presided over the commercial exploitation of crude oil in the albertine region, the war in northern Uganda is seemingly in its evening hour and lastly, the internal civil opposition has been drafted into different arms of government forming a “partnership” of mutual perpetuation. The net effect of this political “climax” is the current size of our public administration where both the ruling political regime and the opposition enjoy a sizeable presence. And to the rest of the country, relative peace turns out our reward in exchange for our commitment to pay taxes to sustain the good politicians who have made peace with each other at the high table for our sake.

Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) thrusted forward by the IMF/WB have seen President Museveni rewarded with resources to sustain his government in exchange for his cooperative partnership with Uncle Sam. Do not meek about this one; he was initially pro-marxist reason for Uganda’s stint at barter trade in 1987. The currency reforms in 1987 seem to have helped his young government mobilize resources to function in the early days. In the process, the geo-political balance of power with the final collapse of the Soviet Union saw Mr.Museveni gradually transform into an ultra pro-western partner over-seeing the collapse of Gen.Habyarimana’s government in Rwanda, Field Marshal Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, attempts at the political reconfiguration of the DR.Congo with Joseph Desire Kabira and the proxy war in Southern Sudan against Khartoum. The events above have had their socio-economic impact on the country in a way we can’t just explain away. Technically he has worked out his political survival well having invested massively in the project. While the economic reforms engineered by the WB/IFM have opened the economy to global competition, human movement and capital flows, the reforms have stopped at the point where the center of gravity of power starts. Economic reforms can only have the right momentum when the political supply chain is equally in progressive mode. Certainly, a progressive and reform minded government has become alien to Kampala since 1995.

It is my humble submission that the president and his lieutenants have over politicized the public good in political reforms. Rather than having improved public accountability and service delivery as the principle objective, Mr.Museveni has invested in political consolidation as his ultimate calculation. There has been a lack of patriotism manifested by that quest to have uninterrupted leadership. There has been too much emphasis on the need for a non “disruptive” opposition. The reason for this is certainly that government will not always do certain things right in public interest thus a need for an alternative voice. Why did we have to decentralize and also expand the size of the central government at the same time? What concurrent reforms were carried out at the center having ceded powers, responsibilities and role in service delivery to the district governments? Answering these questions helps one understand the motive behind the deception on the decentralization process and the reluctant shift from movement to multiparty politics. Despite the role played by the districts and all the inadequate funding, it was an instrument used as a safety valve for government as many jobless people who had previously worked for privatized public corporations, demobilized officers and men of the armed forces presented a potent force for political tension in Kampala. The central government has grown exponentially and is still growing till the president has no more space. The size of cabinet should have been smaller with the advent of the decentralization process. But the size of parliament also grew as a result of more districts. Government has also constituted many public institutions that until today have no clear mandate. They are visibly dysfunctional with a lot of duplication of roles thus the inter-agency conflicts that we see everyday in the media. This mix explains the apparent fusion of government and the state like Siamese twins.

The decentralization program without corresponding reforms at the center has been one area of decongesting the center with political “noise”. In Museveni’s calculation, every potential political element can find employment at least at the districts if not in all the dysfunctional institutions that have been established without any clear policy mandate. Political commentators call this patronage. By default, this confusion has granted the former revolutionary a lot of political comfort reason for what many may view as complacency in the traffic jam/food price politics. While economic reforms have helped the proliferation of NGOs, opened up opportunities for foreign and local investments and created some sizeable number of jobs, the bulk of government is not inspiring as it eats away all the benefits of the economic reforms. It is this reason despite the massive expansion of the tax base since 1986; it is difficult to identify the infrastructural investment made by this government in public interest apart from the military. Since 1986, it is difficult to imagine that no one anticipated the increasing demand on energy or that someone did but no one took this as a strategic national security issue. The potential collapse of the bridge is also another spanner in the works. The Ministry of Finance says it has no money to invest in another bridge but has a lot to buy the president another Presidential jet. The economic cost of government inertia in making strategic investments in the economy is terribly massive. It is easy for a young professional to buy a car from a bond than a plot of land in and around Kampala. Reason, land is a risky investment for many due to the problems in the land registry and the general lack of enthusiasm for government to establish an appropriate policy framework that encourages local investment. Why? Government earns a lot of tax on importation of cars than land purchases; road license, fuel tax, import tax and hear comes the killer one, bad roads increase cost of car maintenance thus importation of car parts with additional tax. And too many cars in a poorly planned small city means traffic jams and more fuel consumption thus more tax for government. Do not forget; 80% of cars in Kampala are a result of bank loans at an interest of 25% on average from the commercial banks or shylocks. The profits that accrue from these high interests are taxed by government. In the end government turns out like a rogue shylock. Government is supposed to be an instrument of public good, to provide a platform of sound leadership so that its citizens can be productive. It is supposed to be the interest of government to help its people make sound investment decisions. Car importation might in the short term provide the tax base for the government to carry out its functions but later preside over a poor old population that is no longer productive having been drained in their youth. Over reliance on import tax has its serious implications as it directly affects our foreign exchange reserve.

Financing Business Ideas-Start Ups!

Every business from its commencement and through its development and growth will need finance. The problem often based by every businessman and woman is on deciding what type of finance is best suited to the development of his or her business, and who they should approach for finance. This article provides some generic advice on types of finance available and outlines the planning required before approaching any lending institution.googlea4d4458564b71066.html

The first issue to consider is whether the finance required. If indeed finance is required, consider what it will entail. Additional funding requires a commitment in terms of capital and interest payments. Embarking on this course of action must therefore be planned carefully. The business must be capable of sustaining any additional commitment to growth or expansion, and consideration will need to be given to effects on manpower, materials and space.

The second issue is considering the various sources of finance. Before seeking outside finance, a business must consider whether it could improve its working capital from within. Particular attention should be given to stock and debtors to ensure that both are kept to a minimum. Consider how long it takes to bill customers and collect debts and look at ways to reduce this time.

Assuming external funding is necessary, planning is essential in achieving success. A well drawn up business plan is essential to enable you set out clearly the nature of the project you want to finance and the timing of the required financing.

A business plan is also key requirement for to any lending financial institution. Banks are unlikely to provide any financial assistance without a properly drawn up business plan.

A well thought out and drawn business plan should include the objectives and aims of the business, the purpose of the required funding, the business ownership and history, management and responsibilities, products and market share, sales plan and strategy, the financial position of the business with detailed cash flow forecasts and past accounts.

Business finance is available in many forms, but it is important to make sure that it is right for your business. The most common sources of business finance is bank overdrafts, medium to long term loans and mortgages, but rates of interest can vary considerably. Whatever form of finance is offered, the lender will always require some form of security. However the level of security sought may vary depending on a number of factors such as, the amounts required, the nature of the business, the risk exposure to the lender and the period for which finance is required.

Other methods of finance that specifically relate to acquiring capital assets for the business include leasing assets, hire purchase or outright purchases. Each method of funding has its own tax advantages and disadvantages. Typical tax issues to consider when evaluating difference business financing options include – whether the finance arranging costs are tax deductible, whether the interest expense will be tax deductible, and whether they are any withholding tax implications which both parties need to be aware of.

It is for this reason that every business should always consult their tax advisers before they commit to any business financing arrangements, so as to ensure that all tax implications of the proposed financing are fully considered and if necessary provided for in the loan agreements accordingly.

African dictatorship rooted in her traditional culture!

Kenya’s coalition government is still out there in the air and civil strife might resume. In Zimbabwe there is a rumor President Robert Mugabe has ordered a vote re-count before the Electoral Commission even announces the results. In Cameroon, President Paul Biya has had his way to a third term and past and future crimes cleared by the national parliament through a constitutional amendment on April 10th, 2008. This pattern is all over the continent. Africa seems to be under siege with itself which might explain a possible mass clash of culture as the world globalizes.

Some years back my grand mother deep in Luwero explained to us around a fire place that she can’t eat chicken because traditionally women are "not" allowed to eat chicken. Yes, women were not allowed to eat the high protein stuff but greens. She actually argued that in many homes a gizzard being misplaced could spark a storm in a cup of tea. Men were treated like kings and children grew up knowing that a man, as ahead of family was treated with many privileges. Young boys aspired to assume their rightful position in the home by marrying early. While the positive aspects of early marriages could be for genetic continuity as expected by community, the motive for early marriages (family formation) by many could be the power and control that comes along with the position of family head. Traditionally, polygamy was also a source of power and wealth as a large family provided a labor supply for the family head in the number of wives and children.

This family environment, church or school is therefore the breeding ground for dictatorship in Africa. Are leaders at family level instilling the moral fabric that is required of leaders at home? Are fathers role models to their children and family? Are church leaders leading by example or have turned into con-men? Are our professionals leading by example at their work place or more interested in money rather than service of those they supposed to serve? With women emancipation, women have taken leadership roles as family heads and corporate institutions. We need to examine the behavioral pattern of leaders at a broad spectrum in order to understand the economic-political hemorrhage that has hit the face of Africa in the post-independence political regime. Too powerful is the African teacher, church-man, president, traditional leader since he/she has been an absolute source of information while his subordinates remain silent recipients rather than having an interactive dialogue or multilogue. It is now common to hear elites use a phrase “Africa Leaders” with an element of exclusivity both in public conferences and virtual communities on the internet. This African leader disease is hard to identify in oneself but easy to see in others and thus the ease of pointing finguers. “African leaders” is a phrase used to refer to the usual military “strong men” but in actual sense these are insecure individuals with low-self esteem whose psyches date back to the time they were children in their families, church and schools where the father, bishop or teacher wielded unnecessarily immense power for subjugation. The attempt to exclude oneself from leadership at all levels of our individual efforts in society is very much a distorting fact in our efforts to criticize those at the apex of our national leadership. Leadership starts with me and you in our local communities, homes, church, offices and even informal groups as friends.

The Oxford dictionary defines leadership as taking responsibility of an entity or other individuals. It is a position where one is charged with making sound decisions because one has been trusted to have sound judgment on behalf of an entity or those he is responsible for. Leadership is not by comfort but by sacrifice. It calls for service above self. It calls for humility of those charged with responsibility to serve above self. Today, Africa is a shameful scar of our modern history. We have betrayed our continent and the future of our children at all levels of our calling. Somalia, Kenya, Cameroon, Angola, Sudan,Chad, Uganda, Zimbabwe and all what happened to the African people?

Visibly there is clash of cultures at play at this stage. Many of our ageing leaders are still stuck in the traditional culture of “rulership” characteristic of a feudalistic system which has its roots in the African traditional family. With the emergence of the internet and digital television, an emerging community of young leaders is questioning some of these traditional beliefs and thus potential for a second continental revolution. In Uganda as the President invites Libyans to invest in an instant coffee plant worth $20m he has already signed another agreement with Indian firm TATA for another plant in Jinja at the same cost. But the same President has just invested $80m (worth 4 plants) in refurbishing state house Entebbe. The same President has just invested interest in a Luxury Gulf Stream 5 Jet worth $40m (2 plants) for his own comfort typical of the traditional African strong man. It is very easy for government functionaries to defend some of these decisions across the continent using jargons such as security of the person of the president but glaringly our leadership limitations as a continent can be traced in the flaws of our traditional culture and our traditional resistance to change.

Why President Museveni Must run Uganda like Corporate Executive!

Many times Ugandans have humbly asked government to remain frugal in public expenditure? The media and civil society have advised government against public wastage. While government has a spokesperson, the practice to communicate back to the public has been from the usual suspects albeit unconvincingly. My opinion today is premised on the cardinal principle that public accountability is an obligation of leadership and cannot be dismissed as mere irritation from oppositionists. I have watched His Excellence the President making passionate appeals to the International business community to come and invest in Uganda. The government has liberalized the economy spurring competition in particular sectors of the economy with the right national policy mix. The economic reforms have made basic goods available on the market and improved productivity. Peace has been ushered into most parts of the country except northern Uganda and Karamoja. In 22 years of his uninterrupted leadership the balance sheet certainly needs very serious scrutiny if were to move to another level.

While the President seems to know what strategic actions to take in improving the economy, his body language is very confusing. 80% of Ugandans are rural based and engaged in agriculture. Coffee which has remained Uganda’s principle export earner at the rate of 21% certainly needs public intervention as a cash crop. And yes, almost a year ago the government signed an agreement with Indian TATA firm to establish an instant coffee plant worth $20m in Jinja. The Indian firm has so far been cautious for some reasons unknown to the public thus decelerating the creation of 150 direct jobs thus impeding the trickle down effect. Our good government has also recently crafted in the Libyans for another plant in Namanve with a capital investment estimated at $25m. Mt.Elgon Coffee also plans to build a coffee roasting plant in Tororo for export to its subsidiary in Denmark. The combined investment of these three projects, if they are established at all, is estimated to add value to 20% of our national coffee produce bringing in a total of $2bn a year into the national economy and create almost 1200 jobs for Ugandans.

While these ventures are very juicy in economic terms, the implementation has serious political disincentives just like many others that have disappeared in thin air. It is hard to comprehend why government has not initiated these projects on its own based on their well researched and documented potential in revamping the coffee sector. The TATA project meant for Jinja, a year since the agreement was signed has not taken off yet. The Libyans may also take their time to implement the Namanve project or walk away just like Nile AES power did on Bujagali and other “too-good-to-be” true investors. Remember these kind of projects have the potential to unsettle established actors in the coffee supply chain who are making a kill in the global coffee market at the disadvantage of my grand mother deep in Luwero. The potential for established corporations such as Nescafe to sabotage private investors in such ventures is so high that government cannot ignore economic or industrial espionage in these projects. Uganda being an agro-based economy rightly needs to invest in agro-processing and this seems to be a well understood concept by the political establishment. The question is why rely on the good will of private investors despite the public resources that are squandered on toy-projects with no visible trickledown effect in the economy?

22 years is a long time for one to assume this government has a strong vision on strategic public intervention in the economy like many other smart governments are doing around the world. A private investor whether from India or Europe will do his research before putting his money into this economy. He will look at the taxation regime, the state of the existing public infrastructure that will support his business, cost of establishing business, cost of labor and the entire policy framework. It is a known fact, while the president is begging investors to come and invest in the economy, civil and public servants are engaged in massive abuse of public resources with impunity. The government structure is simply an enormous political octopus eating away all the economic benefits. While the president is begging investors to come and fix his economy, he is approving public expenditures that are indefensible and shocking even to his long-time supporters. The purchase of a brand new luxury Gulf Stream 5 presidential jet at a cost of $45m comes at a time when parliament has just bought 4-wheel drive cars for legislators 98% who have failed to account for the Constituency Development Fund. $45m for the jet alone would put up the two plants in Jinja and Namanve and bring in the net worth we are looking for from private investors. The government could eventually partially privatize these corporations to the private sector to bring the much needed technical managerial resource in such corporations.

The president needs to run the country in a more corporate way. Wikipedia defines corporate governance as the set of processes, customs, policies, laws and institutions affecting the way a corporation is directed, administered or controlled. It also includes the relationships among the many stakeholders involved and the goals for which the corporation is governed. The principal stakeholders are the shareholders, management and the board of directors. Other stakeholders include employees, suppliers, customers, banks and other lenders, regulators, the environment and the community at large. Corporate governance tries to reduce or eliminate the principle-agent-problem. It is therefore not enough for the president to assume that over-loaded ($$$$) investors will just come here and dump money in the economy!!!!! As a corporate executive he will have to lead by example to build Uganda’s economic foundation for equitable development for the benefit of all stakeholders.

Troubleshooting MS Exchange server 2003,Disk Space Depleted Due to non flushed Transaction Logs,Mailbox Store Dismounts!

All over a sudden your network users can't access their mailboxes on your mail server. Help-Desk calls are increasing in traffic. You're running exchange server 2003 who mail database has dismounted. You ping the server and you recieve a response that its online. Yes, you can log into the server admin applet to check for possible causes of the problem.
How do you deal with an Exchange server 2003 whose database has dismounted? How do you mount the database on a server whose disk space has been consumed by the Transaction logs till it can't process any further in-coming/out-going mail? This article is basically based on practical experience on what happened to my mail servers paralysing communication. The volume on which the Database was stored was 100GB and yes the circular logging was not enabled because we are using a proprietary backup system which if configured properly should be able to delete non-committed transaction logs.

Examining the server resources, it was evident the volume which stored the mailbox store had been depleted. Transaction logs each of size 512k had done the job.Since 2006,June we did Veritas Backup exec upgrade and the configuration was not done right.The back up ran fine and yes the mail communication was fine till 5.27pm 5th January,2008 when the mailbox store went down. The volute at 5.27pm could not commit any further transaction logs. The mailbox store dismounted and that explains why network users could not access their emails thus the help-desk calls.

A volume of 100GB was all gone and only zero kilobytes of free space existed. If you're in such a situation. Your Chief of Party wants to communicate with his experts.Phones jumping off the hook,time to prove your troubleshooting skills is yesterday!!! You can't re-mount the mailbox store till you free up space on that volume,period. Eh!!! you don't want delete those "useless" transactions logs mannually my man! Microsoft does not advise you to do just that either.If you try to run veritas back up exec on the assumption that after the appropriate configuration it will work, it wont be able to connect to the database either.But thanks for changing the configuration correct. It will be handy much later in the process. The solution is to free up space on that volume somehow!!!

This is how I got about it.Make a deliberate selection of all transaction logs starting from the oldest and compress them. You will be amazed by the amount of space recovered! If you can regain about 10GB, which you should anyway, go ahead try to re-mount the Mailbox store! Bingo! The mailbox store will remount. Remember you have not deleted any transactions logs just as yet. Check your proprietary back up system for property configuration that ensures that transaction logs are flushed after the back up done successfully. If you do not run a vender back up system then, you will have to make a decision to enable circular logging. At this point go ahead run a differential backup which if configured properly should delete uncommitted transction logs.On completion of the backup you should be able to notice a massive recovery of the volume!

Only Smart Governments can transform Africa

Kenya's post election violence has left many socio-economic analysts and recent optimists in the mooted African renaissance as an emerging market very surprised. The 'optimism' of world leaders such as former US President Bill Jefferson Clinton was based on closed door schemes by the recent club of "revolutionaries'. The will by African leaders to expose their unstructured and informal economies to ferocious market reforms without cushions was neither pragmatic nor progressive. It has not been progressive because incumbent regimes have deliberately and persistently ignored political reforms that have a direct bearing on the success of economic reforms. Political reforms have immediate impact on the power structure; which by all means is the resource distribution supply chain. This lack of progressive political reforms undermines economic reforms resulting into a fragile and politically god-fathered and arrogant middle-class. The “if you can’t afford bread buy cake” kind of middle-class.

From Adis Ababa, Kampala, Kigali, Pretoria, Kinshasa it is visible the IMF/World Bank structural adjustment programs (SAPs) were like putting a square peg in a circular hole.
The IMF/WB ‘thought’ African governments can independently dig a circular hole. Alas! The Breton Wood Institutions authored and monitored these reforms strictly with the object of ensuring that African markets were open to the capitalist elite in Europe and the US. They certainly obtained their principle objective having all African markets burst open. The “new breed of African leaders” was assured of financial resources in return for their “cooperative partnership’ with Uncle SAM. Based on this observation, the optimism of President Bill Clinton was overly deceptive in the eyes of the Africa people.

The question is: In whose interests do African leaders work? Political historians assert that politics is about power acquisition and its retention, agreed! The disappointing bit is that in Africa regime consolidation, schemism and brute kleptocracy seems to be the “genetic” denominator. While liberalizing the economy gives a semblance of national reforms, the process and momentum stops at the point where the center of gravity of power is challenged. It means therefore, these liberal economic reforms are a compromise between the IMF/WB and African governments in a partnership of mutual perpetuation.

Good governance is; but smart leadership that obtains when the regime in power is politically inclined to vertical and horizontal reforms. Economic reforms are not sustainable if the benefits cannot equitably trickle down. The regime must win public trust that it is acting in public interest. This public trust or lack of it has been tested with Uganda’s attempts at the land reforms. The three words are: Suspicion, Suspicion, Suspicion. It is saddening that power consolidation in Africa has taken this dangerous dimension becoming the primary motive of leadership. In Uganda history is littered with a lot of this baboon! Power consolidation projects have stretched from brute suppression of decent, muzzling of the independent media to bribing opponents. The worst part is the inflation of government departmental budgetary allocation especially in classified expenditures and national defense, internal re-allocation of public funds to regime power consolidation programs without parliamentary approval. The direct beneficiaries remain a small network of regime supporters and cronies. Unfortunately, the false sense of security in the strong military and the security services built by the regime clouds the judgment of our leadership of the public expectations. The result is the Kenyan debacle that has sent economic shivers in the region. Uganda, Rwanda or Tanzania must not be fooled that all is fine. The region must address economic marginalization with immediate urgency because when the Kenyan scenario is replicated, then our CNN $ 1M adverts of “Gifted by nature” will have no impact.

The recent fight and animosity between South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki and the newly elected ANC head Jacob Zuma is a clear example. The Black Empowerment Program (BEP) under the current leadership has been an instrument of empowerment of the Xhosa tribal elite, Mbeki and Mandela’s tribe. This is a perception in South Africa among the Zulu and reason for open defiance against Thabo Mbeki’s elitist approach to public concerns. The fight despite the national damage control measures exhibited schemism and political arm-twisting. The timing of his sacking as Vice President, his rape and corruption trials contradict strongly with the man’s political support which must not be ignored by social analysts. This public support for ‘morally’ questionable personalities, such as Zuma; a man with no formal education, is certainly a protest against any political regime. It has happened in Kampala when Mayor Nasser Ntege Ssebagala returned from a US jail for money laundering. Despite Ssebagala trial and conviction in a competent judicial system, the perception that the government of Uganda had a hand in his predicament catapulted him to political ‘stardom’ trying his acrobatics at the Presidency and finally settling to the Mayorship of Kampala. It points to public trust of the functioning of the state. It is ‘the state/regime is corrupt and rotten then let others do rob scenario’. Robin hood, too many here!

Therefore, it is important to postulate that the supporters of Jacob Zuma of South Africa, Pasteur Bizimungu of Rwanda or Raila Odinga of Kenya do not necessarily feel these men are angels who can deliver them to Canaan; rather their expression of political disgust of regimes that have failed to address public policy concerns, justifiably, legally, institutionally and consistently. The growing public disorder is an expression of dissent to regimes that have implemented reforms half-heartedly leaving a majority marginalized. Building a political structure that eats away all the benefits of the economic reforms marginalizing a section of the population builds latent political tensions. Kenya’s 6.5% economic growth under Mwai Kibaki’s regime did not help to un-nerve the dissent among the Luo’s who felt marginalized by the reforms. The political reforms demanded were meant to address this perceived marginalization and Kenya is just what you and I know today with spill over effects in the region.

What is the answer therefore to this madness? The term is Smart government. Build a reform minded and progressive government that is forward looking. A smart government is led by a nationally shared vision. Do not meek about this; I am not talking about President Museveni’s vision or government. I am talking about a small, efficient and effective government. A smart government is led by men and women who lead by sacrifice rather than extravagance and comfort amidst scarcity. You remember that leader called Museveni who promised to buy furniture from Bwaise? That is the leader of a smart government. Yes, I know you think this is impossible here in our banana continent because President Museveni changed his mind from an ultra-maxist to ultra-capitalist now changing Presidential jets at will. But it starts with me and you. A smart government understands the strategic geo-political positioning of its country in the converging global order. It works in the defense of its national strategic interests and that of its people in the immediate, short and long term rather than a primary motive of regime survival. In this, it works to build national institutions that are accountable to the people. It recognizes the role of the opposition as institutions of ideological diversity. A smart government invests in emerging technology to improve efficiency, effectiveness and accountability in the service of its people. A smart government publicly invests in the human development capacity of its people as its inexhaustible resource. It invests in infrastructures that stimulate economic productivity and improve overall national competitiveness. This government wins and retains public support in its reforms and transparently conducts its business with three things on its agenda; PEOPLE, PEOPLE, PEOPLE!