Thursday, September 25, 2008

Is Ankole a realistic & Potent Opposition to MU7?


At 34, am I a historical, revolutionary or just an ordinary citizen? I was in the bush with the NRA in 1981 to 1986 in Kiwanguzi-Luwero. I witnessed the fusion of Vumbula, a paramilitary group headed by Major.Kakooza Mutale, Ensi Egula Mirambo and Kikono with the NRA in 1981. I lost my father in combat in the jungles of Luwero and my mother retired from the NRA at the rank of Lieutenant in 1992. Am I also a revolutionary by default, association or not? Having spent 5 years of the NRA war out of school and my childhood lost, I went back to primary school in 1987 joining King’s College, Budo in 1991 for my high school till 1996 when I joined Makerere University. Now I hear Dr.Besigye a former bush war physician to President Museveni and Maj.John Kazoora have been disqualified from the “historical” club and I really don’t care. By default I am not one either because of my age and certainly my cartoon status in the political realm. What is the fuss about this “historical” club therefore? Has it really delivered the fundamentals it promised with good momentum? I admire Museveni for just one thing; he knows his personal agenda and follows it with agility, calm and focus. Magode Ikuya “claims” to be a member of the historical club unfortunately he knows that Museveni can strike him off at will if he threatens the center of gravity of power in Nakasero. And while the Magode Ikuyas of this world are still highly celebral in their evening years since their contribution in the Fronasa struggle of the 1970s against Amin, they do not have a political base to threaten the power center reason their ideas do not seem to resonate with the President and his lieutenants at Nakasero or Entebbe. How things have changed so fast! A lean Museveni, 1986 stated his is not a “mere change of guards but a fundamental change”. In 1988 after a regional summit between President Museveni and Gen.Javenal Habyarimana over the return of Rwandans, I watched my hero inspect an NRA guard of honor with his guest in Lubiri barracks commanded by Maj.Gen.Fred Rwigyema then Deputy Army Commander and I was awed. Then I was only in Primary Five staying with (RIP) Major.Bunyenyzi then 1ST Division Commander. I admired officers and men in uniform. I had an emotional connection with them knowing very well every little bit of their lives and sacrifice in the defense of our national security. Water has over the years past under the bridge.

Today, Ugandans have witnessed a practical transformation of the former Marxist revolutionary who presided over a frugal, small and efficient government and state apparatus between 1986 and 1995 to a flamboyant ultra-capitalist running relatively one of the biggest governments in the world. Uganda has certainly obtained a lot of social capital in Museveni’s charismatic leadership having assumed power during the cold war era. There have been regional and global geo-political reconfigurations that the President had to take consideration of to make his radical shift. The question is whether the President still has the energy to keep the boat afloat amidst growing squabbles with his rank and file. The “historical” club whose membership was mainly of characters with socialist leanings is now a preserve of the bourgeois owning estates in billions of dollars. Problem is that this group is predominantly from Ankole sub-region and specifically those claiming marginalization are from outside the Kiruhura enclave especially from Rukungiri and Kanungu. While the national economy has grown in aggregate terms, the picture is still blurred at household level while seemingly politically connected elite amasses wealth to unimaginable proportions to the envy of everyone else. We are witnessing a situation where a political elite predating off the state is acquiring rural land and dispossessing peasants thus destabilizing the regime’s traditional safety net since we have not developed a welfare state. The result has been a growing rural-urban migration of young people that is not matched by the much hyped industrialization process. The net effect has been slum growth, boda boda economy and the growing organized crime rate. The situation will not get better therefore if the regime does not strategically re-event itself and invest in public goods that can stimulate enterprise and market development amidst an exploding population.

Problem though is that the house has caught fire. The Bahororo sub-tribe from Rukungiri with many decorated former “presumptuous” members of the “historical” club is now up in arms and looking at the President with suspicion and anger. Initially in league with the President, they had political clout. They managed massive security and military budgets from which they curved their power bases and enormous wealth which they still possess with capability to rock the political boat as the President’s energy wanes gradually. These Bahororo former comrades of the President had political-marriages with spouses from the Kiruhura enclave. They were then in league with the Sabagabe. But also it was one way a smart Museveni would keep tab on these ambitious chaps. The Bahororo seem to have strong links with a network of wealthy Bakiga diaporians allied to Dr.Besigye’s cause and with a powerful conviction that Mr.Museveni has lost the political initiative in managing the state prudently. They also have very strong intelligence network with a suspicious regime in Kigali right next door. A combination of this internal Ankole revolt in the president’s court that is in irreconcilable mood as witnessed from the NSSF-Mbabazi Temangalo land debacle, the traditional opposition in the north and East, an increasingly irritable Mengo establishment over land, a growing population of landless and unemployed youths leaves President Museveni with a non-tested group of young elite in the military and security agencies under the wing of his son Lt.Col.Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

What is happening is now a regime in free fall mode. It is obvious the President is operating in cautious mode a sign he has lost his power stature over the years. He has been in fighting mood with Mengo over the Land Bill project that culminated into the arrest of three Mengo officials. His maverick intelligence coordinator deployed the “black mamba” a paramilitary anti terrorist commando unit that publicly defiled the “temple of justice” during the PRA suspects release by the high court. For the first time, a keen monitor photo journalist revealed the military commandos often camouflaged in police uniform confirming the regime has actually adopted a militant stance in dealing with civil matters of public good. Former revolutionaries have been found to have stolen GAVI money meant for immunizing our children. They have been found to have a high affinity for money that they have also misused global fund money meant for procurement of anti retro viral drugs for our citizens. The quiet revolt raging with in the regime is irreversible and is going to shape the future political landscape in Uganda.

ANC proved that in a truly emerging democracy, the agenda of the ruling party over-rides the personal agenda of a sitting President. NRM certainly does not merit the tenets on which ANC runs its business. In a sense this grants President Museveni some false sense of security since as a sitting president with his patronage network of political hangers-on he can out-maneuver his opponents in the immediate. Given the trend above, it is visible Ugandans are slowly gaining momentum to effect change. And the catalyst of this momentum seems deeply rooted in the group that ushered in the regime itself factionalized due internal marginalization as a policy of the regime. The President’s safety valve remains in his young turks that have taken command positions with in the military and security organizations under the wing of his son Lt.Col.Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

The political damage the NSSF saga has done Hon.John Patrick Amama Mbabazi has eroded the power that was a preserve of the historical club. President Museveni remains the only historical left with any trace of political energy in his belly except that age is not on his side. I do not think it is in the interest of President Museveni to re-engineer Amama Mbabazi public standing from a political stand point. President Museveni in the immediate needs the celebral energy of John Patrick Mbabazi who even opponents respect for his brain power. This certainly translates into mutually symbiotic relationship and confirms Mbabazi’s assertion that he will quit when the President quits as quoted by the Sunday Vision, 27th September 2008. Technically, those opposed to Mr.Mbabazi are opposed to the President in private. What we can see is a growing internal opposition to the President in the next few years with in the party as well as a growing population of unemployed youths, poor landless peasantry and a tax burdened middle class.

Can the young turks carry on Mr.Museveni’s agenda when faced with an organized group of former “historicals” opposed to Mr.Museveni’s succession project? Will any of the two belligerent groups pursue their mission for public good? http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/opinions/Is_the_Ankole_house_facing_internal_revolt_72669.shtml

South Africa ponders life after Mbeki


South Africa's political landscape is changing faster than anyone anticipated.
The speed of events over the past few days has inevitably created an atmosphere of uncertainty, and some apprehension.
The sudden resignation of President Thabo Mbeki has drawn a welter of calls for clear and strong leadership, lest the country finds itself on the path to becoming "a banana republic", to quote the words of Archbishop Desmond Tutu.
However, change has been on the cards since the historic African National Congress (ANC) national conference in Polokwane last December.
Thabo Mbeki, seeking a third term as party leader, was defeated by his long-time rival, Jacob Zuma - the man whom Mr Mbeki had sacked as South Africa's Deputy President in 2005.
Polokwane was a watershed, with 4,000 ANC delegates from branches all over the countries exercising their democratic right to force a change of leadership in the party.
After 10 years at the helm of the ruling party, Thabo Mbeki found himself rejected in favour of the populist, Jacob Zuma.
Within days of the Polokwane conference, the writing was on the wall for Thabo Mbeki and his allies.
At the ANC's anniversary celebrations in January, the then leader of the party's Youth League, Fikile Mbalula, signalled that the Zuma camp in the ANC was firmly in the ascendancy.
"We are the future. No-one can stop us", he declared.

Trying times
There has been a decidedly mixed reaction in South Africa to the forced resignation of Thabo Mbeki.
"He was a bad president. He divided our country", said last week's Sunday Times. President Mbeki's ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance Helen Zille Leader of the Democratic Alliance
But many commentators and observers have expressed disquiet at the timing of this political change.
They believe it could leave South Africa vulnerable at a time of turbulence in the world economy.
An analysis by Standard Chartered Bank says that "with the economic slowdown and electricity crisis, South Africa already faces a trying time".
"Emigration levels from the country are the highest they have been since the early 1990's. Both business and consumer confidence have slumped," it continues.
"While investors may welcome greater certainty in terms of the future political outlook, a more volatile political transition is likely to cost the country dearly," the bank says.

Marginalised poor
It was Thabo Mbeki's stewardship of the South African economy that has arguably been his greatest achievement.
During his presidency, the country has enjoyed its longest period of steady economic growth. The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, has appealed to South Africans not to panic

There are fears that if Jacob Zuma becomes President after next year's elections, he may be beholden to some of his allies on the political left, such as the Cosatu trade union federation and the South African Communist Party.
They have always been opposed to Mr Mbeki's economic policies, arguing that the poor have been marginalised, and that unemployment remains high.
However, in the short term, there are hopes that the likely acting president, Kgalema Motlanthe, may be the safe pair of hands that the country needs at present.

"Mr Motlanthe has been one of the few voices of reason in the ANC," said Patricia De Lille, the leader of the smaller opposition party, the Independent Democrats.

"We hope he will put the country before the party, and put the lives of ordinary South Africans ahead of party political agendas," she said.

Breakaway party Helen Zille, the leader of the biggest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, says the current political crisis has highlighted the deep divisions within the ANC.
"President Mbeki's ousting may prove to be the undoing of the ANC's electoral dominance." The threat of a breakaway party is now significant

Standard Chartered Bank The ANC has been stressing the need for a smooth transition.
The confirmed resignation of six cabinet ministers on Tuesday was not the type of news it wanted.
Another eight ministers or deputy ministers have been persuaded to stay, and will, it seems, be re-appointed by the new administration.
But the walk-out by a handful of Mbeki loyalists in the cabinet has raised the intriguing possibility of a significant split within the ANC, and for the first time, perhaps, the emergence of a breakaway party.
It would be unthinkable for Thabo Mbeki, who has devoted his life to the ANC since he was a teenager, to leave the party.
But according to Standard Chartered Bank's analysts, "the threat of a breakaway party is now significant".
It warns that the implications could be grave.

"The ANC remains the dominant party in South Africa, but any exodus by a large number of centrists, would leave party policy even more at the mercy of more radical influences," it says.
The ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, may insist that the current changes are "nothing extraordinary", but his appeal to South Africans "not to panic", suggests that the Rainbow Nation is facing one of its biggest challenges of the post-apartheid era.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Why South African President Thabo Mbeki had to go!


The African National Congress's decision to sack President Thabo Mbeki has been described by some South African commentators as "regicide".
Certainly it is unprecedented in South African history that a head of state is dismissed in this way. Nor is the ANC the kind of organisation that goes in for this humiliation of its leaders.
So why did it happen?
The immediate cause was Mr Mbeki's ongoing feud with his former deputy, the ANC party leader Jacob Zuma.
But this was not just a personal vendetta between two men. Behind these events lie two major factors: one political, one personal.

Fight with the left
Thabo Mbeki, although a former member of the South African Communist Party, has used conventional economic policies to drive the country's development agenda.
Tight monetary and budgetary targets have been set and met. The result has been a period of unprecedented economic growth, reaching 5% a year in recent years.

In June 1996 Finance Minister Trevor Manuel introduced a neo-liberal economic strategy known as Growth, Employment and Redistribution (Gear).
This included commitments to open markets, privatisation and a favourable investment climate.
The ANC is in a formal alliance with two groups on the left, the Communists and the trade union movement, Cosatu. Both were fiercely critical of the strategy and argued that they had been excluded from its development and implementation.

In the report to the Communist Party Congress in July 1998 the Central Committee spelled out their objections to Gear in great detail.
This concluded: "We remain convinced that Gear is the wrong policy. It was wrong in the process that developed it, it is wrong in its overall strategic conception, and it is wrong in much of its detail.
"At the end of the day, we cannot allow our entire transformation struggle to be held hostage by conservative approaches to the budget deficit."
In May this year Blade Nzimande, General Secretary of the Communist Party wrote: "Despite the many modest gains that our own democracy has made since the 1994 democratic breakthrough, our own self-imposed structural adjustment programme, Gear, failed to make a dent in unemployment (unemployment actually increased dramatically between 1996 and 2006), and eroded the capacity to build a developmental state."

These criticisms are not just held by the Communist Party, they are a reflection of the unease on the left as a whole at the policies that Thabo Mbeki adopted.
Anger at the president's strategy to tackle the problems of unemployment, in particular, contributed to his downfall.

Victims unite
All politicians make enemies. That is the nature of the game. But President Mbeki has made more than most. One example should suffice to illustrate the problem.
In April 2001 the country's national daily, the Star, had a headline that read "Mbeki plot rocks ANC".
President Mbeki had sent his minister of safety and security to accuse three leading members of the party of plotting to oust him.
The accused - former ANC secretary-general, Cyril Ramaphosa and two former provincial premiers, Tokyo Sexwale and Mathews Phosa ­- were among the party's most respected figures.
All three were men who had driven to seek their fortunes in business after being marginalised by Mr Mbeki.
To this day there is no clear explanation of why these extraordinary charges were made. Nelson Mandela himself emerged from retirement to say that he held all three in "high esteem".
The Mail and Guardian newspaper commented at the time that it was a strategy worth of Joseph Stalin and said: "Many observers have dismissed the plot theories as a strategy to warn off potential competitors with ambitions to challenge Mbeki's leadership."
No evidence was ever led against them, no charges were laid and the matter was swept under the carpet. However, it was certainly not forgotten.
Today Mathew Phosa is the ANC Treasurer General, one of the top party posts. Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale are members of the National Executive.
Their names, along with those of Zwelinzima Vavi, leader of the trade unions in Cosatu and Blade Nzimande of the Communist Party, have been cited in the South African press as among those who wielded the knife against Thabo Mbeki.

The political and the personal had come together.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Uganda's Billionaire,Michael Ezra Lets out Presidential Ambitions!

Michael Ezra has been phenomenon to many Ugandans. He is certainly under the protection of the state. He brags of global business ecumen and at his age no Ugandan pretenders can marshal the resources his bag commands. And you can't easily disagree.

He has funded sports through which he hightlights his phylanthropic personality. My interaction with Michael Ezra have been purely business and here I will hightlight my observations. He is a public figure based on his financial muscle to the sports industry whose image is well crafted through smart public relations.

As a student of neural psychology I was able to identify certain character traits that will be a basis of this long term investigation of the man that remains an enigma to many.

Michael Ezra exudes confidence which certainly permeates from his financial muscle and closeness to the power structure in Uganda. To some, it is very easy to assume he is arrogant but that borders on ignorance.He is a smart guy certainly with an international exposure to his advantage.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

President Museveni Politically Complacent!!


Debate is quietly raging in Kampala’s ‘joints” or bufundas as to whether President Museveni is just gradually getting complacent or simply an astute student of economics. Does the traffic jam in Kampala exhibit a growing rich urban elite? Are the sky rocketing food prices exhibit of growing affluence as the president has been persistently quoted in the media? There are many ways of looking at his political body language. He has hosted a successful Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. His government has presided over the commercial exploitation of crude oil in the albertine region, the war in northern Uganda is seemingly in its evening hour and lastly, the internal civil opposition has been drafted into different arms of government forming a “partnership” of mutual perpetuation. The net effect of this political “climax” is the current size of our public administration where both the ruling political regime and the opposition enjoy a sizeable presence. And to the rest of the country, relative peace turns out our reward in exchange for our commitment to pay taxes to sustain the good politicians who have made peace with each other at the high table for our sake.

Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) thrusted forward by the IMF/WB have seen President Museveni rewarded with resources to sustain his government in exchange for his cooperative partnership with Uncle Sam. Do not meek about this one; he was initially pro-marxist reason for Uganda’s stint at barter trade in 1987. The currency reforms in 1987 seem to have helped his young government mobilize resources to function in the early days. In the process, the geo-political balance of power with the final collapse of the Soviet Union saw Mr.Museveni gradually transform into an ultra pro-western partner over-seeing the collapse of Gen.Habyarimana’s government in Rwanda, Field Marshal Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, attempts at the political reconfiguration of the DR.Congo with Joseph Desire Kabira and the proxy war in Southern Sudan against Khartoum. The events above have had their socio-economic impact on the country in a way we can’t just explain away. Technically he has worked out his political survival well having invested massively in the project. While the economic reforms engineered by the WB/IFM have opened the economy to global competition, human movement and capital flows, the reforms have stopped at the point where the center of gravity of power starts. Economic reforms can only have the right momentum when the political supply chain is equally in progressive mode. Certainly, a progressive and reform minded government has become alien to Kampala since 1995.

It is my humble submission that the president and his lieutenants have over politicized the public good in political reforms. Rather than having improved public accountability and service delivery as the principle objective, Mr.Museveni has invested in political consolidation as his ultimate calculation. There has been a lack of patriotism manifested by that quest to have uninterrupted leadership. There has been too much emphasis on the need for a non “disruptive” opposition. The reason for this is certainly that government will not always do certain things right in public interest thus a need for an alternative voice. Why did we have to decentralize and also expand the size of the central government at the same time? What concurrent reforms were carried out at the center having ceded powers, responsibilities and role in service delivery to the district governments? Answering these questions helps one understand the motive behind the deception on the decentralization process and the reluctant shift from movement to multiparty politics. Despite the role played by the districts and all the inadequate funding, it was an instrument used as a safety valve for government as many jobless people who had previously worked for privatized public corporations, demobilized officers and men of the armed forces presented a potent force for political tension in Kampala. The central government has grown exponentially and is still growing till the president has no more space. The size of cabinet should have been smaller with the advent of the decentralization process. But the size of parliament also grew as a result of more districts. Government has also constituted many public institutions that until today have no clear mandate. They are visibly dysfunctional with a lot of duplication of roles thus the inter-agency conflicts that we see everyday in the media. This mix explains the apparent fusion of government and the state like Siamese twins.

The decentralization program without corresponding reforms at the center has been one area of decongesting the center with political “noise”. In Museveni’s calculation, every potential political element can find employment at least at the districts if not in all the dysfunctional institutions that have been established without any clear policy mandate. Political commentators call this patronage. By default, this confusion has granted the former revolutionary a lot of political comfort reason for what many may view as complacency in the traffic jam/food price politics. While economic reforms have helped the proliferation of NGOs, opened up opportunities for foreign and local investments and created some sizeable number of jobs, the bulk of government is not inspiring as it eats away all the benefits of the economic reforms. It is this reason despite the massive expansion of the tax base since 1986; it is difficult to identify the infrastructural investment made by this government in public interest apart from the military. Since 1986, it is difficult to imagine that no one anticipated the increasing demand on energy or that someone did but no one took this as a strategic national security issue. The potential collapse of the bridge is also another spanner in the works. The Ministry of Finance says it has no money to invest in another bridge but has a lot to buy the president another Presidential jet. The economic cost of government inertia in making strategic investments in the economy is terribly massive. It is easy for a young professional to buy a car from a bond than a plot of land in and around Kampala. Reason, land is a risky investment for many due to the problems in the land registry and the general lack of enthusiasm for government to establish an appropriate policy framework that encourages local investment. Why? Government earns a lot of tax on importation of cars than land purchases; road license, fuel tax, import tax and hear comes the killer one, bad roads increase cost of car maintenance thus importation of car parts with additional tax. And too many cars in a poorly planned small city means traffic jams and more fuel consumption thus more tax for government. Do not forget; 80% of cars in Kampala are a result of bank loans at an interest of 25% on average from the commercial banks or shylocks. The profits that accrue from these high interests are taxed by government. In the end government turns out like a rogue shylock. Government is supposed to be an instrument of public good, to provide a platform of sound leadership so that its citizens can be productive. It is supposed to be the interest of government to help its people make sound investment decisions. Car importation might in the short term provide the tax base for the government to carry out its functions but later preside over a poor old population that is no longer productive having been drained in their youth. Over reliance on import tax has its serious implications as it directly affects our foreign exchange reserve.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Financing Business Ideas-Start Ups!

Every business from its commencement and through its development and growth will need finance. The problem often based by every businessman and woman is on deciding what type of finance is best suited to the development of his or her business, and who they should approach for finance. This article provides some generic advice on types of finance available and outlines the planning required before approaching any lending institution.googlea4d4458564b71066.html

The first issue to consider is whether the finance required. If indeed finance is required, consider what it will entail. Additional funding requires a commitment in terms of capital and interest payments. Embarking on this course of action must therefore be planned carefully. The business must be capable of sustaining any additional commitment to growth or expansion, and consideration will need to be given to effects on manpower, materials and space.

The second issue is considering the various sources of finance. Before seeking outside finance, a business must consider whether it could improve its working capital from within. Particular attention should be given to stock and debtors to ensure that both are kept to a minimum. Consider how long it takes to bill customers and collect debts and look at ways to reduce this time.

Assuming external funding is necessary, planning is essential in achieving success. A well drawn up business plan is essential to enable you set out clearly the nature of the project you want to finance and the timing of the required financing.

A business plan is also key requirement for to any lending financial institution. Banks are unlikely to provide any financial assistance without a properly drawn up business plan.

A well thought out and drawn business plan should include the objectives and aims of the business, the purpose of the required funding, the business ownership and history, management and responsibilities, products and market share, sales plan and strategy, the financial position of the business with detailed cash flow forecasts and past accounts.

Business finance is available in many forms, but it is important to make sure that it is right for your business. The most common sources of business finance is bank overdrafts, medium to long term loans and mortgages, but rates of interest can vary considerably. Whatever form of finance is offered, the lender will always require some form of security. However the level of security sought may vary depending on a number of factors such as, the amounts required, the nature of the business, the risk exposure to the lender and the period for which finance is required.

Other methods of finance that specifically relate to acquiring capital assets for the business include leasing assets, hire purchase or outright purchases. Each method of funding has its own tax advantages and disadvantages. Typical tax issues to consider when evaluating difference business financing options include – whether the finance arranging costs are tax deductible, whether the interest expense will be tax deductible, and whether they are any withholding tax implications which both parties need to be aware of.

It is for this reason that every business should always consult their tax advisers before they commit to any business financing arrangements, so as to ensure that all tax implications of the proposed financing are fully considered and if necessary provided for in the loan agreements accordingly.

Monday, April 14, 2008

African dictatorship rooted in her traditional culture!

Kenya’s coalition government is still out there in the air and civil strife might resume. In Zimbabwe there is a rumor President Robert Mugabe has ordered a vote re-count before the Electoral Commission even announces the results. In Cameroon, President Paul Biya has had his way to a third term and past and future crimes cleared by the national parliament through a constitutional amendment on April 10th, 2008. This pattern is all over the continent. Africa seems to be under siege with itself which might explain a possible mass clash of culture as the world globalizes.

Some years back my grand mother deep in Luwero explained to us around a fire place that she can’t eat chicken because traditionally women are "not" allowed to eat chicken. Yes, women were not allowed to eat the high protein stuff but greens. She actually argued that in many homes a gizzard being misplaced could spark a storm in a cup of tea. Men were treated like kings and children grew up knowing that a man, as ahead of family was treated with many privileges. Young boys aspired to assume their rightful position in the home by marrying early. While the positive aspects of early marriages could be for genetic continuity as expected by community, the motive for early marriages (family formation) by many could be the power and control that comes along with the position of family head. Traditionally, polygamy was also a source of power and wealth as a large family provided a labor supply for the family head in the number of wives and children.

This family environment, church or school is therefore the breeding ground for dictatorship in Africa. Are leaders at family level instilling the moral fabric that is required of leaders at home? Are fathers role models to their children and family? Are church leaders leading by example or have turned into con-men? Are our professionals leading by example at their work place or more interested in money rather than service of those they supposed to serve? With women emancipation, women have taken leadership roles as family heads and corporate institutions. We need to examine the behavioral pattern of leaders at a broad spectrum in order to understand the economic-political hemorrhage that has hit the face of Africa in the post-independence political regime. Too powerful is the African teacher, church-man, president, traditional leader since he/she has been an absolute source of information while his subordinates remain silent recipients rather than having an interactive dialogue or multilogue. It is now common to hear elites use a phrase “Africa Leaders” with an element of exclusivity both in public conferences and virtual communities on the internet. This African leader disease is hard to identify in oneself but easy to see in others and thus the ease of pointing finguers. “African leaders” is a phrase used to refer to the usual military “strong men” but in actual sense these are insecure individuals with low-self esteem whose psyches date back to the time they were children in their families, church and schools where the father, bishop or teacher wielded unnecessarily immense power for subjugation. The attempt to exclude oneself from leadership at all levels of our individual efforts in society is very much a distorting fact in our efforts to criticize those at the apex of our national leadership. Leadership starts with me and you in our local communities, homes, church, offices and even informal groups as friends.

The Oxford dictionary defines leadership as taking responsibility of an entity or other individuals. It is a position where one is charged with making sound decisions because one has been trusted to have sound judgment on behalf of an entity or those he is responsible for. Leadership is not by comfort but by sacrifice. It calls for service above self. It calls for humility of those charged with responsibility to serve above self. Today, Africa is a shameful scar of our modern history. We have betrayed our continent and the future of our children at all levels of our calling. Somalia, Kenya, Cameroon, Angola, Sudan,Chad, Uganda, Zimbabwe and all what happened to the African people?

Visibly there is clash of cultures at play at this stage. Many of our ageing leaders are still stuck in the traditional culture of “rulership” characteristic of a feudalistic system which has its roots in the African traditional family. With the emergence of the internet and digital television, an emerging community of young leaders is questioning some of these traditional beliefs and thus potential for a second continental revolution. In Uganda as the President invites Libyans to invest in an instant coffee plant worth $20m he has already signed another agreement with Indian firm TATA for another plant in Jinja at the same cost. But the same President has just invested $80m (worth 4 plants) in refurbishing state house Entebbe. The same President has just invested interest in a Luxury Gulf Stream 5 Jet worth $40m (2 plants) for his own comfort typical of the traditional African strong man. It is very easy for government functionaries to defend some of these decisions across the continent using jargons such as security of the person of the president but glaringly our leadership limitations as a continent can be traced in the flaws of our traditional culture and our traditional resistance to change.

Why President Museveni Must run Uganda like Corporate Executive!

Many times Ugandans have humbly asked government to remain frugal in public expenditure? The media and civil society have advised government against public wastage. While government has a spokesperson, the practice to communicate back to the public has been from the usual suspects albeit unconvincingly. My opinion today is premised on the cardinal principle that public accountability is an obligation of leadership and cannot be dismissed as mere irritation from oppositionists. I have watched His Excellence the President making passionate appeals to the International business community to come and invest in Uganda. The government has liberalized the economy spurring competition in particular sectors of the economy with the right national policy mix. The economic reforms have made basic goods available on the market and improved productivity. Peace has been ushered into most parts of the country except northern Uganda and Karamoja. In 22 years of his uninterrupted leadership the balance sheet certainly needs very serious scrutiny if were to move to another level.

While the President seems to know what strategic actions to take in improving the economy, his body language is very confusing. 80% of Ugandans are rural based and engaged in agriculture. Coffee which has remained Uganda’s principle export earner at the rate of 21% certainly needs public intervention as a cash crop. And yes, almost a year ago the government signed an agreement with Indian TATA firm to establish an instant coffee plant worth $20m in Jinja. The Indian firm has so far been cautious for some reasons unknown to the public thus decelerating the creation of 150 direct jobs thus impeding the trickle down effect. Our good government has also recently crafted in the Libyans for another plant in Namanve with a capital investment estimated at $25m. Mt.Elgon Coffee also plans to build a coffee roasting plant in Tororo for export to its subsidiary in Denmark. The combined investment of these three projects, if they are established at all, is estimated to add value to 20% of our national coffee produce bringing in a total of $2bn a year into the national economy and create almost 1200 jobs for Ugandans.

While these ventures are very juicy in economic terms, the implementation has serious political disincentives just like many others that have disappeared in thin air. It is hard to comprehend why government has not initiated these projects on its own based on their well researched and documented potential in revamping the coffee sector. The TATA project meant for Jinja, a year since the agreement was signed has not taken off yet. The Libyans may also take their time to implement the Namanve project or walk away just like Nile AES power did on Bujagali and other “too-good-to-be” true investors. Remember these kind of projects have the potential to unsettle established actors in the coffee supply chain who are making a kill in the global coffee market at the disadvantage of my grand mother deep in Luwero. The potential for established corporations such as Nescafe to sabotage private investors in such ventures is so high that government cannot ignore economic or industrial espionage in these projects. Uganda being an agro-based economy rightly needs to invest in agro-processing and this seems to be a well understood concept by the political establishment. The question is why rely on the good will of private investors despite the public resources that are squandered on toy-projects with no visible trickledown effect in the economy?

22 years is a long time for one to assume this government has a strong vision on strategic public intervention in the economy like many other smart governments are doing around the world. A private investor whether from India or Europe will do his research before putting his money into this economy. He will look at the taxation regime, the state of the existing public infrastructure that will support his business, cost of establishing business, cost of labor and the entire policy framework. It is a known fact, while the president is begging investors to come and invest in the economy, civil and public servants are engaged in massive abuse of public resources with impunity. The government structure is simply an enormous political octopus eating away all the economic benefits. While the president is begging investors to come and fix his economy, he is approving public expenditures that are indefensible and shocking even to his long-time supporters. The purchase of a brand new luxury Gulf Stream 5 presidential jet at a cost of $45m comes at a time when parliament has just bought 4-wheel drive cars for legislators 98% who have failed to account for the Constituency Development Fund. $45m for the jet alone would put up the two plants in Jinja and Namanve and bring in the net worth we are looking for from private investors. The government could eventually partially privatize these corporations to the private sector to bring the much needed technical managerial resource in such corporations.

The president needs to run the country in a more corporate way. Wikipedia defines corporate governance as the set of processes, customs, policies, laws and institutions affecting the way a corporation is directed, administered or controlled. It also includes the relationships among the many stakeholders involved and the goals for which the corporation is governed. The principal stakeholders are the shareholders, management and the board of directors. Other stakeholders include employees, suppliers, customers, banks and other lenders, regulators, the environment and the community at large. Corporate governance tries to reduce or eliminate the principle-agent-problem. It is therefore not enough for the president to assume that over-loaded ($$$$) investors will just come here and dump money in the economy!!!!! As a corporate executive he will have to lead by example to build Uganda’s economic foundation for equitable development for the benefit of all stakeholders.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Troubleshooting MS Exchange server 2003,Disk Space Depleted Due to non flushed Transaction Logs,Mailbox Store Dismounts!

All over a sudden your network users can't access their mailboxes on your mail server. Help-Desk calls are increasing in traffic. You're running exchange server 2003 who mail database has dismounted. You ping the server and you recieve a response that its online. Yes, you can log into the server admin applet to check for possible causes of the problem.
How do you deal with an Exchange server 2003 whose database has dismounted? How do you mount the database on a server whose disk space has been consumed by the Transaction logs till it can't process any further in-coming/out-going mail? This article is basically based on practical experience on what happened to my mail servers paralysing communication. The volume on which the Database was stored was 100GB and yes the circular logging was not enabled because we are using a proprietary backup system which if configured properly should be able to delete non-committed transaction logs.

Examining the server resources, it was evident the volume which stored the mailbox store had been depleted. Transaction logs each of size 512k had done the job.Since 2006,June we did Veritas Backup exec upgrade and the configuration was not done right.The back up ran fine and yes the mail communication was fine till 5.27pm 5th January,2008 when the mailbox store went down. The volute at 5.27pm could not commit any further transaction logs. The mailbox store dismounted and that explains why network users could not access their emails thus the help-desk calls.

A volume of 100GB was all gone and only zero kilobytes of free space existed. If you're in such a situation. Your Chief of Party wants to communicate with his experts.Phones jumping off the hook,time to prove your troubleshooting skills is yesterday!!! You can't re-mount the mailbox store till you free up space on that volume,period. Eh!!! you don't want delete those "useless" transactions logs mannually my man! Microsoft does not advise you to do just that either.If you try to run veritas back up exec on the assumption that after the appropriate configuration it will work, it wont be able to connect to the database either.But thanks for changing the configuration correct. It will be handy much later in the process. The solution is to free up space on that volume somehow!!!

This is how I got about it.Make a deliberate selection of all transaction logs starting from the oldest and compress them. You will be amazed by the amount of space recovered! If you can regain about 10GB, which you should anyway, go ahead try to re-mount the Mailbox store! Bingo! The mailbox store will remount. Remember you have not deleted any transactions logs just as yet. Check your proprietary back up system for property configuration that ensures that transaction logs are flushed after the back up done successfully. If you do not run a vender back up system then, you will have to make a decision to enable circular logging. At this point go ahead run a differential backup which if configured properly should delete uncommitted transction logs.On completion of the backup you should be able to notice a massive recovery of the volume!

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Only Smart Governments can transform Africa

Kenya's post election violence has left many socio-economic analysts and recent optimists in the mooted African renaissance as an emerging market very surprised. The 'optimism' of world leaders such as former US President Bill Jefferson Clinton was based on closed door schemes by the recent club of "revolutionaries'. The will by African leaders to expose their unstructured and informal economies to ferocious market reforms without cushions was neither pragmatic nor progressive. It has not been progressive because incumbent regimes have deliberately and persistently ignored political reforms that have a direct bearing on the success of economic reforms. Political reforms have immediate impact on the power structure; which by all means is the resource distribution supply chain. This lack of progressive political reforms undermines economic reforms resulting into a fragile and politically god-fathered and arrogant middle-class. The “if you can’t afford bread buy cake” kind of middle-class.

From Adis Ababa, Kampala, Kigali, Pretoria, Kinshasa it is visible the IMF/World Bank structural adjustment programs (SAPs) were like putting a square peg in a circular hole.
The IMF/WB ‘thought’ African governments can independently dig a circular hole. Alas! The Breton Wood Institutions authored and monitored these reforms strictly with the object of ensuring that African markets were open to the capitalist elite in Europe and the US. They certainly obtained their principle objective having all African markets burst open. The “new breed of African leaders” was assured of financial resources in return for their “cooperative partnership’ with Uncle SAM. Based on this observation, the optimism of President Bill Clinton was overly deceptive in the eyes of the Africa people.

The question is: In whose interests do African leaders work? Political historians assert that politics is about power acquisition and its retention, agreed! The disappointing bit is that in Africa regime consolidation, schemism and brute kleptocracy seems to be the “genetic” denominator. While liberalizing the economy gives a semblance of national reforms, the process and momentum stops at the point where the center of gravity of power is challenged. It means therefore, these liberal economic reforms are a compromise between the IMF/WB and African governments in a partnership of mutual perpetuation.

Good governance is; but smart leadership that obtains when the regime in power is politically inclined to vertical and horizontal reforms. Economic reforms are not sustainable if the benefits cannot equitably trickle down. The regime must win public trust that it is acting in public interest. This public trust or lack of it has been tested with Uganda’s attempts at the land reforms. The three words are: Suspicion, Suspicion, Suspicion. It is saddening that power consolidation in Africa has taken this dangerous dimension becoming the primary motive of leadership. In Uganda history is littered with a lot of this baboon! Power consolidation projects have stretched from brute suppression of decent, muzzling of the independent media to bribing opponents. The worst part is the inflation of government departmental budgetary allocation especially in classified expenditures and national defense, internal re-allocation of public funds to regime power consolidation programs without parliamentary approval. The direct beneficiaries remain a small network of regime supporters and cronies. Unfortunately, the false sense of security in the strong military and the security services built by the regime clouds the judgment of our leadership of the public expectations. The result is the Kenyan debacle that has sent economic shivers in the region. Uganda, Rwanda or Tanzania must not be fooled that all is fine. The region must address economic marginalization with immediate urgency because when the Kenyan scenario is replicated, then our CNN $ 1M adverts of “Gifted by nature” will have no impact.

The recent fight and animosity between South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki and the newly elected ANC head Jacob Zuma is a clear example. The Black Empowerment Program (BEP) under the current leadership has been an instrument of empowerment of the Xhosa tribal elite, Mbeki and Mandela’s tribe. This is a perception in South Africa among the Zulu and reason for open defiance against Thabo Mbeki’s elitist approach to public concerns. The fight despite the national damage control measures exhibited schemism and political arm-twisting. The timing of his sacking as Vice President, his rape and corruption trials contradict strongly with the man’s political support which must not be ignored by social analysts. This public support for ‘morally’ questionable personalities, such as Zuma; a man with no formal education, is certainly a protest against any political regime. It has happened in Kampala when Mayor Nasser Ntege Ssebagala returned from a US jail for money laundering. Despite Ssebagala trial and conviction in a competent judicial system, the perception that the government of Uganda had a hand in his predicament catapulted him to political ‘stardom’ trying his acrobatics at the Presidency and finally settling to the Mayorship of Kampala. It points to public trust of the functioning of the state. It is ‘the state/regime is corrupt and rotten then let others do rob scenario’. Robin hood, too many here!

Therefore, it is important to postulate that the supporters of Jacob Zuma of South Africa, Pasteur Bizimungu of Rwanda or Raila Odinga of Kenya do not necessarily feel these men are angels who can deliver them to Canaan; rather their expression of political disgust of regimes that have failed to address public policy concerns, justifiably, legally, institutionally and consistently. The growing public disorder is an expression of dissent to regimes that have implemented reforms half-heartedly leaving a majority marginalized. Building a political structure that eats away all the benefits of the economic reforms marginalizing a section of the population builds latent political tensions. Kenya’s 6.5% economic growth under Mwai Kibaki’s regime did not help to un-nerve the dissent among the Luo’s who felt marginalized by the reforms. The political reforms demanded were meant to address this perceived marginalization and Kenya is just what you and I know today with spill over effects in the region.

What is the answer therefore to this madness? The term is Smart government. Build a reform minded and progressive government that is forward looking. A smart government is led by a nationally shared vision. Do not meek about this; I am not talking about President Museveni’s vision or government. I am talking about a small, efficient and effective government. A smart government is led by men and women who lead by sacrifice rather than extravagance and comfort amidst scarcity. You remember that leader called Museveni who promised to buy furniture from Bwaise? That is the leader of a smart government. Yes, I know you think this is impossible here in our banana continent because President Museveni changed his mind from an ultra-maxist to ultra-capitalist now changing Presidential jets at will. But it starts with me and you. A smart government understands the strategic geo-political positioning of its country in the converging global order. It works in the defense of its national strategic interests and that of its people in the immediate, short and long term rather than a primary motive of regime survival. In this, it works to build national institutions that are accountable to the people. It recognizes the role of the opposition as institutions of ideological diversity. A smart government invests in emerging technology to improve efficiency, effectiveness and accountability in the service of its people. A smart government publicly invests in the human development capacity of its people as its inexhaustible resource. It invests in infrastructures that stimulate economic productivity and improve overall national competitiveness. This government wins and retains public support in its reforms and transparently conducts its business with three things on its agenda; PEOPLE, PEOPLE, PEOPLE!

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Bridging the Digital Divide-Uganda's Case Study!

Enterprise/market development in BDD.


A comparative Analysis:
A Detailed Copy of this Report has been submitted to the the Diplo Foundation in Malta as part of the Internet Governance Capacity Building Program by this author who was an IGCBP7 Fellow of Diplo Foundation.

Abstract:
"Access" for all is thought to be necessary to tackle social exclusion and promote equality in the "new knowledge economy' by ensuring that the gap beween the "haves" and 'have nots' does not widen as ICT becomes increasingly influencial in relation to educational standards, economic competitiveness and citizenship(1). As Manuel Castel says “Information Technology(IT), together with the ability to use and adapt it, is the critical factor in generating and accessing wealth, power and knowledge in our time. The digital divide in Africa at the dawn of the information age may be the most lasting wound inflicted on this continent by new patterns of dependency”. (2) "The rise of informationalism in this end of millennium is intertwined with rising inequality and social exclusion throughout the world" (Castel 1996, p. 70). Castells traces the phenomenon of exclusion(social or digital divide) across different social and geographic contexts and concludes "the evolution of inter/intra-country inequality varies, what appears to be a global phenomenon is the growth of poverty, and particularly of extreme poverty" (Castel 1997, p. 81).

This project compares enterprise/market conditions in two localities in Uganda in the prism of interventions to bridge the digital divide.The project, comparatively analyses the impact of enterprise development in simple micro enterprises such as the Lawlyn Telecenter,Tororo Uganda and the relatively complex and larger humantarian funded Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter. The research critically analyses entire project cycles identifying key models or blend of model elements with a visibly high potential of rapid replication level of success in bridging the digital divide in Uganda. The study analyses key elements of success as well as challenges and limitations; structural and policy of both models. It also emphasies the importance of enterprise and market development as the key motivational factor of success in bridging the digital divide through the adoption and intergration of technology in production and supply chains in socially and digitally excluded communities. Finally, the project highlights key circumstances that require affirmative action strategically where markets are limiting. The object often is to stimulate enterprise and market development through adoption and intergration of technology in production and supply chains.

Background: The potential for ICT to transform society is well documented. Universal access to computers and the internet is considered necessary to avoid social divisions and offer opportunities for all by ensuring that future "knowledge economies" include everyone (HM Treasury 2000). The failure in bridging the digital divide threatens to result into powerful digital communication tools exacerbating and entrenching societal disparities. As ICT continues to proliferate, the development of 'digital divides' may require the whole concept of poverty itself to be re-examined. The 'digital divide' will need to be incorporated as one characteristic in a new conception of social exclusion(Damarin 2000; Jackson etal 2000).

The proliferation of ICT in education and expansion of internet-based information and services further amplify the chasm between the information 'haves' and "have-nots'. Those on the wrong side of the divide(s) will have less opportunity to participate and engage with both formal and informal education, training and information( Damarin,2000). Social inclusion and economic development in the 'information age' are mutually reinforcing, and for people in low income communities gaining and exploiting ICT skills leads to opportunities to participate fully in local and national economies(PAT 15 2000). Social exclusion therefore as manifested by the 'Digital Divide' requires a well coordinated multi-stakreholder approach in order to facilitate a process of equitable distribution of opportunities in a globalizing world.

Introduction:
The project was focused on two case studies in Uganda to compare project cycles from conception,execution and sustainability protocols. Uganda is one of the poorest countries located in Sub-Saharan Africa. Relative to the UK, Uganda as a country is digitally under developed. It neighbours Kenya to the East,DR.Congo to the West, Sudan to the North, Tanzania and Rwanda to the South. Seated at the top of the Nile Valley, it faces strategic security challenges that it grapples with to advance. The entire Sub-Sahran region faces immense economic challenges in meeting the social service demands of her people, thus regarded the poorest region in the world.

Lawlyn Telecenter ,Tororo is located 250km East of Kampala the capital of Uganda. Tororo town is approximately 12km from the Uganda Kenya border of Malaba. There has been an influx of donor funded projects on health, agribusiness, education, human rights and also a growing business community due to cross-border trade. Mobilie telecom infrastructure has been built in this township and across the country. There has been an influx of tourists and other cross-border travellers. The town has a large hinterland which is largely rural based with Subsistence agriculture as the major economic activity.

The Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter on the contrary, is located approximately 50km North of Kampala in a relatively rural community. Despite its closer proximity to the capital,Nakaseke community is mainly subsistentially agro based and infrastructurally inaccessible. Comparatively the community is much poorer than Tororo town which is peri-urban. Nakaseke is actually about 20km off the Kampala-Gulu Road defining the centrality of its inaccessibility in infrastructural terms. What therefore defines the feasibility of government extension of infrastructural services lies in the economic activity of the community and therelies the power of market forces which is a key highlight in the project in BDD in Uganda. Lawlyn Enterprise Telecenter in Tororo township is a small communications shop built purely on an enterprise model offering Internet Services, Email, faxing, scanning, photocopying at costs determined by the market and sound business decisions while Nakaseke Multi-Purpose is much larger more complex in terms of physical presence, equipment and general capital investment. The Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter, has the hallmark of an affirmative action initiative built on donor funds as a result of the international convention on universal access.

Discussion: Lawlyn & Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenters in Tororo town and Nakaseke Community are classic examples of public-private efforts in bridging the digital divide. Tororo, like many towns in Uganda, in 2002 did not have a single internet shop but now has a total of 4 internet cafes' taking advantage of the prevailing business opportunities in the communications sectors. The enterprise initiative was visibly built on a prevalent and gradually growing market for internet/Data Communications services. The enterprise development initiative of the Lawlyn Telecenter also is exhibit of the prevalent policy initiatives in government. Uganda today prides in a total of 4 Licensed National Operators since the collapse of the Duopoly agreement between government and MTN/UTL. It also points to the regulatory framework under the Uganda Communications Commission(UCC) under whose jurisdiction these Telecenters operate. The presence of 4 active National Operators in the Country means competition and market penetration in areas that were previously untapped, better services, price wars and better access by the public. UTL, Celtel,Warid Telecom and MTN have rolled out WIMAX technology to reach more rural communities such as Nakaseke, services that were previously the exclusive preserve of the urban elite in the capital.

The government policy on building a National Fiber Optics backbone radiating out of the capital Kampala to all remote Local Government Points will bring on board more actors in the market since it stimulates market divelopment as well as enterprise development. There are also challenges such as taxation that can be addressed by policy to encourage enterprenuers invest in this sector to stimulate the economy through improved access to information. There is the energy problem in the Country. While physical access to the national power grid remains a problem in the country side, high power demand has resulted into increased unit costs of utility and thus increased overhead costs for enterprenuers in the internet kiosk business. Governemt is addressing this through promotion of reneweable energy and alternative energy sources such as solar, thermal generation for immediate mitigation during load-sheding hours. This is collective policy action. A hydro electricity dam at Bujagali is under construction,other smaller dams as well as enforcement of energy saving technologies is underway. All these are public policy approaches that are geared towards not just providing free social services but stimulating productivity so that people can harness their environments with the right technology tools. It is a sound reason why Telecenters have sprung up in all townships in Uganda since 2002. All telecom operators have mobile internet services on mobile phones. It is all pointing to policy and market development therefore.

Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter had the hallmark of affirmative action. Being a rural community with no visible cash economy to talk about. Investment in this project by a private entreprenuer would not be feasible. Considerations such as relevance of internet service to a population that relies entirely on susistance agriculture comes in. How many people actually need access and can afford the service? What is the cost of installation, support and mantenance of the facility? How accessible is the community? What is the level of ICT literacy/general literacy of the community? What public infrastructures are available that can reduce cost of installation? Nakaseke community lacked the ingredients that can stimulate a local enterprenuer to invest in such a project justifying affirmative action from a collaboration with good objectives under the Universal Access Declaration between the government of Uganda through its policy framework and its International Development partners.

The Barriers faced by Nakaseke Community were addresed by:
  • Auditing the disadvantages of the community to establish their needs and requirements in terms of content, and promote initiatives that involve them in directly creating materials. This was carried out through a baseline protocol.
  • The initiators allowed plans and the entire project to evolve organically from the people they aim to help, but provide support mechanisms to scaffold the development of sustainability. A multi-stakeholder approach helped reduce fragmentation that can create barriers to community participation. An example is the local government requirement that all students in the community contribute to the sustainability of the project.
  • Development of better policy and delivery design by identifying clear lines of responsibility for coordination of advice and help through a single communication channel to all those who wish to develop community based initiatives in the community such as the Donors of other projects, district local government and the private sector.
  • Identifying and working with recognised information leaders with in Nakaseke Community such as district information managers, local ICT personnels through social mapping to find key individuals, community needs and interests (Benton Foundation 1998).
    The Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter is physically much larger and more complex than the enterprise telecenters across the country due to the investment capital put in by the donors,government and the community. The rapid replication rate of the micro enterprise telecenters is built around their simplicity and innovation of mobilizing refurbished hardware, skills out of business decisions that help sustain the projects. Because donors are not easy to come-by, complex projects of this nature are not easy to implement. In otherwords the difficulty the private entreprenuers finds in investing in undeveloped market niches combined with the scarcity of committed donors complicates the problem of socially excluded communities.

    A summary of factors contributing to the digital divide in a Liberal Economy.

    Shortcomings of the Markets:
    There is an arguement that commercial providers target the most profitable segments of society first and unconnected sections last. There are no guarantees that market provision will deliver affordable ICT to all groups in society. Thus while Lawlyn Telecenter saw an enterprise opportunity in Tororo Township due a growing market, Nakaseke community needed a strategic public intervention to stimulate enterprise and market development.
    Market-led provision may reach 'natural' saturation levels and inequalities may be exacerabted following new technical waves and inventions (Booz-Allen & Hamilton 2000). This can be explained from the evolution of the broad band boom and bandwidth intensive applications, the disucssion of Net Neutrality legislation and the threat of internet fragmentation.

Costs:

  • The cost of purchasing equipment, telephone costs, tuition and perceptions of costs have been reported as barriers for non-internet users(Motorola 2000). From an enterprenuers perspective, the cost of credit access, interest rates, cost of business, lack of power and overhead costs become apparent. In Tororo this was addressed by the existence of credit service providers , enterprenuers because of feasible market conditions. Because of the remote nature of Nakaseke Community, ineccessibility, lack of or inadequate telecom services, poor business environment and energy problem would hinder a private investor come in leaving public intervention the only option.
  • Cheaper calls(26%), unmetered free access(17%) and cheaper subscriptions would encourage greater internet usage among existing home users( OFTEL,2000a). This calls for greater liberalization of the economic sector as well as the telecom sector to bring in more players in the market. Because of their relatively large investment capital chest, they would break into areas where small entreprenuers can penetrate untapped markets like Nakaseke and Tororo. Uganda's policy direction in this direction is impressive but more liberalization of other sectors of the economy has a strong bearing on market stimulation.
    Lack of relevance, interest and aspirations
    The percieved lack of relevancy has socio-economic dimension. A significant number of people in communities like Nakaseke believe ICT is not relevant to their lives (DTI 1999). They are poor and do not know the relationship between information and economic activity.Many people still largely associate ICTs to the 'economic domain' (Hochschild,Benton Foundation 1998). Individuals in higher socio-economic occupational strata are more likely to use ICT at work (DTI 1999). In 2003, when Lawlyn Telecenter was set up, most NGOs and the local government did not any ICT policy in their operational manual. Lawlyn Telecenter served this cohort of the market as well as travellers, tourists, cross borders and local entreprenuers in search of information. As the telecom sector grew, NGOs started establishing data links in their offices and employees enjoying the internet. More players joined Lawlyn in the business bringing on more competitions, price fluctuations, better services etc. But the issue of relevancy goes further among more remote communities like Nakaseke where the population is largely illiterate and engaged in susistence agriculture.
    Poverty aspirations and opportunity are factors that lead to the development of self exclusion and further inequalities. Perceptions of the utility of computers is mediated by individual family discourses, wider learning communities, and particular software environments( Dowes 1998; Tobin).
    Lack of Access & Support:
  • Many of the non users lack confidence and skills necessary to use the internet (ONS 2000b) as well as total lack of access to infrastructure. This fact is not exclusive to rural or the peri-urban environ. The market did not address the needs of the hinterland of Tororo which is equally largely rural and agro-based. This community is largely composed of the elderly, low literacy rates and poor vulnerable groups simulating the Nakaseke community. A majority of the people can't read or write in English so access to ICT and its use calls for training, affirmative action through strategic public-private interventions.
  • Lack of local technical capacity to support new users learn about ICT (DTI 1999) both in formal and informal settings. Rural communities like the hinterland of Tororo and Nakaseke itself lack local capacity to support new users. This is where the Nakaseke Telecenter model comes in handy.
    Lack of Literacy:
  • Many people are largely illiterate to use ICT at all or effectively(PAT 15,2000). The internet is predominantly English while computer key boards are mainly in English inhibiting use by people/communities whose first language is not English like the Nakaseke Community.
    Lack of Joined-up Approaches:
  • Community groups still struggle to find from 'one-time-limited initiative to another'. The private sector is still largely absent from debates surrounding ICT and social inclusion in deprived communities such as Nakaseke and Tororo (Leach 2001).PAT 15(2000) found that there is often little collaboration or communication between local projects, or strategic thinking acrosss organizations and few mechanisms for sharing experiences.
  • The 'digital divide' represents one aspect of wider inequalities. The 'joined up' nature of social problems is one of the key factors underlying the concept of social exclusion.
    Barriers to community access:
  • Learning in mixed groups at community access points can make some groups feel uncomfortable. Barriers exist to locations, opening times, lack of adequate child care, security, facilities for the disabled, ethnic minorities and the elderly.
  • Unsustainable, inconsistent, unsuitable and partial funding are barriers to community based initiatives such as the Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter.
  • ICT access points may be poorly promoted and marketed, and their role and content may lack local focus (PAT 15 2000).
    Conclusion:

    'Digital Divide(s)'s have no single, identifiable cause or effect. Many public or private initiatives therefore, are intergrated alongside broader concepts and policies that aspire to tackle deprivation and exclusion. While Lawlyn Enteprise Telecenter took advantage of the general liberalization investment climate in the country, it is possible to note that the Nakaseke Multi-Purpose Telecenter was a public-private response to a general understanding that market forces have limitations. It had the hallmark of the affirmative action initiative geared towards finding a model that helps achieve the ambitious declaration of universal access. Presented below are recommendations and suggestions that propose methods for Bridging the Digital Divide(BDD). Many are in thrusting forward a government framework that addresses policy issues that facilitate enterprise development while also strategically intervening in areas to stimulate market development.

    Increasing Access and Support:
  • Develop the use of existing community resources and locations, including schools, in order to help offer further free or inexpensive access and training for communities that need affirmative action.
  • The provision, extension and development of home-loan laptops should be considered and supported by other forms of support service. Examples of such initiatives are the One-Child-One-Laptop Project of Nicholas Negroponte and African Governments.
  • Meeting the information needs of non-english speakers should be promoted and content should be readily available in languages other than english.
    Supplementing/enhancing provision from markets:

  • Raise awareness about the extent and dimensions of the divide to industry sectors. This will help them to identify specific areas of product development and marketing as sales levels out due to saturation.
  • Create further competition to provide cheaper services among telecommunications, software and resource companies through strategic liberalization of the economy.
  • Promote the concept of corporate social responsibility with in the ICT industry to raise awareness and involvement in the needs of socially and economically excluded communities that can turn out to be future markets for the private sector.
  • Further promote and develop the market for resale and refurbishment of used IT hardware. Computer AID international has refurbished and shiped out computers to Africa for use in schools and private companies, NGOs which has been a good initiative. This is a private humantarian initiative that government can facilitate through tax exemptions so that the equipment becomes even more affordable.
    Reducing Costs:
  • Government must continue to develop a national infrastructure of low-cost or free access points in under-served communities through strategic public-private interventions. The National fiber optics backbone and a well grounded regulatory and enforcement apparatus in Uganda is starting point. Linking Local Governments(districts) to the national ICT grid will bring on board more players and extend services to the disavantaged communities.(Booz-Allen & Hamilton 2000).
  • Coordinate, develop and indentify a range of low-cost technical solutions to access provision for all types of ICT. This would help to reduce the numbers who percieve ICT as unaffordable.
  • 'e-Missionaries' such as teachers and students should be encouraged, or recruited, to train the 'unconnected'.
  • Develop 'taster' courses that link ICT directly to other aspects of life relevant to the communities involed.
    In summary, ICT development stimulates markets and markets act as incentives for enterprise development. While affirmative action(public intervention) is important in socially excluded communities, it must be geared towards enterprise and market development since there "aint anything like free lunch' at the end of the day. Sustainability of ICT projects in bridging the digital divide can only be possible when direct project beneficiaries have stake in keeping it affloat. The Lawlyn Micro Enterprise Telecenter and it survival in the market despite the replication of its model and stiff competition meant that the market all over the country had developed. Entreprenuers simply saw an opportunity to play their role in responding to the market. These simple telecenters are the face of comunication in all townships in Uganda and their role in bridging the digital divide is enormous. Thus the primary objective of public intervention even in socially excluded communities must strategically be aimed at helping the community build economic capacity and establish more access points to spread the service.
    References:
    1.http://llk.media.mit.edu/papers/aera2000.pdf
    2.http://www.isoc.org/oti/articles/1100/benjamin.html

    3.http://felix.openflows.com/html/netparadigm.html

    4.http://www.svpww.com/tc_training1.html

    5. http://www.idrc.ca/wsis/ev-86365-201-1-DO_Topic.html

    6.Benton Foundation 1998 Losing Ground bit by bit: Low-Income Communities in the information age. http://www.benton.org/library/Low-income/

    7.Booz-Allen & Hamilton 2000 Achieving Universal Access.Consultation Report for the UK Government on Internet Access. http://www.number-10.gov.uk/default.asp?Pageid=1203

    8. Damarin,S 2000. The 'digital divide' versus digital differences: Principlces for equitable use of technology in education. Educational Technology. Vol 40(4).

    9.The Rise of the Network Society, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, Vol. I. M. Castells (1996). Cambridge, MA; Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 556 pp., ISBN 1-55786-617-1

    10.The Power of Identity, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, Vol. II. M. Castells (1997). Cambridge, MA; Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 461 pp., ISBN 1-55786-874-3

    11.The End of the Millennium, The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture, Vol. III. M. Castells (1997). Cambridge, MA; Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 418 pp., ISBN 1-55786-872-7 5.http://www.gurusoftware.com/GuruNet/Interviews/Internet.htm

    12. HM TREASURY 2000 Britain and the knowledge economy. Speech by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the Smith Institute in London. Feb 16th 2000

    13.MOTOROLA 2000. The British and Technology.Slough

    14. Policy Action Team 15 (PAT) 2000. Closing the Digital Divide:Information and Communication Technologies in Deprived Areas: London. DTI. http://www.cabinet-office.gov.uk/seu/publications/pat/pat15.doc


  • Wednesday, October 03, 2007

    What happened to Tony Blair's Commission on Africa?

    In early 2004, the then British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, established the Commission for Africa, commonly known as the Blair Commission by many political commentators. The 17 members of the Commission, 9 from Africa and all working in their individual and personal capacities, published their report "Our Common Interest" on 11 March 2005 addressed to the leaders of the G8 and to the wider international community. It was also addressed to the African people and the world as a whole. The measures proposed by the Commission constitute a coherent package to achieve the Commission's goal of a strong and prosperous Africa. But as the cynics have always said, the the Blair Commission for Africa was strategically designed to rebuild Tony Blair and Labor’s image for taking his country, in 2003,to war in Iraq based on sexed up intelligence.


    As strategically worked out with all the publicity the commission got, Blair and Labor swung back into power and an intra-party transition has just seen Mr. Gordon Brown come on board as the new Prime Minister of G.Britain.Key members of the Commission included Tony Blair, Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania, Bob Geldorf, Melees Zenawi of Ethiopia, my fellow old Budonian Simon Kalema from Uganda and others as the new ambassadors of Africa's development needs. But the Blair Commission, after Bob-Geldorf’s much hyped up media Rock campaign for the drenched of the earth, is no more like the world-cup has come to an end. Like Tony Blair, George.W.Bush, a man who did not know the location of Nigeria on the global map, also whose election in 2000 against Albert Gore had all the farcical characteristics of a typical African election, announced the $15bn July,2003 to save ACP countries from the ravage of HIV/AIDS thus dubbed the "compassionate" Republican President by his Washington's politburo.


    In a similar pattern, Bush had attacked Iraq without UN authorization shoulder to shoulder with Britains Tony Blair. The 2002 election has bruised Bush public standing in the US and the World. Attacking Iraq after the 9/11 rallied some domestic support around him. But his trip to troubled Africa gave him a higher moral latitude thus the $15bn HIV/AIDS initiative. The object was to rally public support back home after the terrorist attack. Compare $130bn the EU uses for agricultural subsidies distorting global agricultural markets and Mr. Bush’s $15bn for fighting HIV/AIDS in Africa, Blair's romantic Africa commission and you will understand the comedy better.

    Question is: Does Africa or Uganda ever learn from these acrobatics from the West? Right now Trade negotiations that have been going on between the European Commission(EC), Brussels' EU Executive and representatives of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) governments under the Economic Partnerships Agreements(EPAs) are aimed are further creating more market access for European firms in the ACP trading block. The European Commissioner Mr.Peter Mandelson is a hawkish bully threatening ACP Countries with export tarrifs if they do not sign the EPAs by 31st December. The unfortunate bit is that the African people do not share ideas with their governments on important issues of this nature. Government negotiate on behalf of their people but the negotiations should have public input. There is need for national sensitization for people to understand their short, immediate and long term strategic threats from the trade agreements.


    Is Africa actually at the same competitive level in economic infrastructural terms to have a constructive partnership under the EPAs? I have watched the Ugandan government and its donor partners in a long poverty eradication crusade since the late 1980's with progress in the post-war reconstruction phase in the early 1990s due to humanitarian dollar inflows and public frugality of a young political regime. But the romantic figures rightly do not seem to translate into tangible economic benefits for a rapidly growing population. Overtime also the regime in Kampala has consolidated power and gradually grown complacent with the support from its development partners, with representatives of the EC in the diplomatic service in Kampala. On the 11th September 2007, the European commissioner for trade Peter Mandelson, a former political strategist and confidant of former British PM Tony Blair-of the Blair Commission fame, told members of the European Parliament (MEPs) that he would not consider offering more preferential treatment to ACP countries than the EU's general system of tariffs if the Dec. 31 deadline cannot be met. Typical gun-point diplomacy proper, Thank you very much!



    Africa faces an acute energy problem that has crippled production in the manufacturing sector. As many countries including Uganda resort to thermal generation, there is a problem of increased international prices of carbon fuels. Because most of the countries are land-locked importation of these carbon fules has a strong bearing on inflation. Cummulatively, the cost of a unit of energy and other utilities has sky rocketed just as transport costs translating into increased inflation across the continent. Strategic Public intervention is curtailed by the WB/IMF policy of non intervention in the market. This approach has compromized the state in Africa translating into an instrument of colonial imposition.


    What about public administration? Have government embraced e-governance? Always lagging behind due lack of a critical national vision. The fear for political backlashes as a result of re-engineering business, restructuring of public infrastructure and automation of operations is another problem as Africa's big men consolidate power through industrial revolutions structures. The impact of an archaic public structure in the relationship between Government, Citizens and the Private sector is manifested by the high incidence and prevalence of public corruption. All these hamper economic competitiveness.



    The decay in the road sector, poor regulatory regimes in the telecommunications sector is another hiderance to economic competitiveness of the continent. This also has a direct relationship on the financial sector.But above all the impact of poverty and deprivation as a result of an imblanced global trading regime is Disease,illiteracy and conflict. African leaders need to look at the options in their possession which are not very many anyway. Build accountable public institutions and make use of all available resources for public good as a means of stimulating productivity. EPA discussions are just one of those indicators that indeed "there aint anything like free lunch". The entire humantarian infrastructure that is the backbone of the donor community policy instrument in Africa is aimed at crippling innovation, productivity as a cushion to their crude trade agreements forced on to Africa.


    Africa’s leadership needs to share its challenges with its people in the prism of global economic management rather than posturing as agents of the capitalist elite in Europe and America as it currently seems. This can be achieved through professional Think Tanks and promoting vibrant public policy debate in institutions of higher learning so that the cause of our burden is undertood collectively as Africans.

    Friday, July 20, 2007

    Kalangala Island-The Tourist's hot Destination!

    When you work so hard and think about the toll work and all the other obligations have on ones systems you realize the importance of having time off and go far away from home and away from the hussles of a work environ to reflect on your life goals.
    When a group of friends and workmates decided to have time off work, we decided collectively to go to Kalangala Islands seated right on top of L.Victoria. The sound of birds, the sight of beautiful butterflies, the soothing of the water waves and the freshness of the air, the green was awesome. Kalangala Islands is just one of those natural ecosystems that still remind one of Uganda's rich natural habits. Our routine was simple. Wake up to a heavy breakfast. Walk back to our cottages, sit on the verandah basking in the sun,have a chat and plan our days escapdes. The Islands have a stretching beach with a number of hotels established for accommodation. Hotels have indoors games such as table tenis & Badminton. If you want beach volley ball I am sure you can have it based on the groups creativity.
    Just look at those pictures and you will simply nod in agreement that nature has its ways of healing ones mind than many can imagine.Kalangala for those who have not interfaced with rural Africa will give you that natural experience away from the polluted environ in the rapidly urbanizing Africa.
    During the festive season many people including western tourists flock this Island just to interface with the beauty of our ecological diversity as a country. Nature is certainly one element we ignore when locked up in corporate environs trying to work out contracts. A visit away from home can help one make even his home closer to some of these eco-systems. I was personally awed by the fishermen's prowess in laying out nets for a harvets the following day. Glowing lights at night deep in the amorphous lake as the fishermen lay their traps. It is was a classic example of how man can harness her environment for a better livelihood.
    I have lured all my friends to try their luck in Kalangala. It's a place to make a retreat if you want to re-think or re-examine your strategy, have an organization conference to re-align what we do to meet the ever changing demands of the market. It still gives people to get to undersand themselves better away from a corporate and demanding work environment.
    Board rooms which often are our decision making fora foten become a monotony. Employees who will not have the opportunity to have their leave will find the workplace extremely negatively impacting in terms of their productivity. A retreat for individuals as for entire corporate organization to Kalangala Island works just fine. The thirst in oneself to recharge ones system for another season after months of work deadlines, unfulfilled dreams is a normal desire. The object is to be more productive in the long term. Rejuvenate ones systems, rethink strategy and tactics in a achieving certain objectives and goals. I have have found Kalangala Island one of those remaining natural ecosystems in our rapidly degrading environment. Travel to Kalangala Island is by a cruise ship from Nakiwogo in Entebbe. The cost of travel for the 3 hour cruise is approx $15 or shs.30,000/- for first class travellers or shs.7,000/- for economy. The ship offers that comfort and the much needed visibility of the beautiful scenery. Trust me that group of people had a good time for the entire week we spent on the Islands. There is a ferry from Masaka to Bukakata. From Masaka to Bukakata the ferry takes 45 minutes. This is after 120km drive from Kampala by road. From Bukakata to Kalangala Island is again 1hour drive and frankly this is closely the same timing unfortunately there is a trade off of comfort as the road from Bukakata to Kalangala is not that good. I would personally recommend the cruise ship from Nakiwogo Entebbe straight to Kalangala.

    Irene & Shiela loved the cruise and as you can see they had a lions share of the fun in Kalangala. Honestly, you will not look at just Kalangala Islands and forget. Look at those girls.There is something about Uganda that many people find very fascinating. A Tanzanian friend of mine recently said to me that we simply blessed by God. Our rich natural heritage simply makes us "lazy" taking everything for granted. And why technically this is correct. Uganda's natural endowment has caused some degree of laziness. The environment has not yet put pressure on the population to think creatively and innovatively to produce and grow for the future.

    I kind of believed something fundamental about this comment. This country is the envy of so many yet we do not seem to realize this. We seem to have a strategic position in the region and the World though public policy manager do not seem to have the right upthrust to plan for country. Today, we have discovered oil in our midst. Mineral exploration analysis shows we are endowed with mineral wealth. I hope this does not make us forget all about our natural environment. I always believe in the future for I have lived today and the past. Uganda's future has the capacity, if what we have is taken advantage of, to grow into a regional economic power house to facilitate the growth of the region. We have a climatic advantage, we have that ecological diversity that we can take advantage of. We are equally endowed with natural resources and the inexhaustible human resource which if invested in appropriately can turn out to be the engine of our Pan-African Development.

    Finding such virgin beauty is rapidly becoming an exclusive right for a few as the environment else where is being polluted left right and center. Go to Asia and you will find alot of artificialization of the environment. Uganda still has her beautiful green but certainly this is being threated by the exploding population.